Game Recap: CAR 5, NYI 3, November 5, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night

NYI3

CAR beat NYI 5-3, with the chances close: 3.46 expected goals to 3.48. CAR outshot NYI 39 to 27. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Svechnikov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. B. Bussi stopped 24 of 27.

Team Stats

CARNYI

39Shots on goal27

3.46Expected goals3.48

63Shot attempts63

355v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/4

16Hits26

22Blocked shots13

18Penalty minutes14

21Giveaways19

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.46 xGNYI 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR38 on goal, 4 scored

NYI27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	0	22:09	2:26
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	2	7	0	0	+3	0	18:11	2:26
W. Carrier	LW	1	1	2	2	4	1	+1	0	13:53	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	16:26	2:26
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	15:06	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:13	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	8:53	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	5	0	2	+1	0	15:46	2:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	15:05	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	13:20	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	10:30	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	10:20	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	22:57	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	19:18	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	25:52	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+3	2	20:24	0:26
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	16:53	2:26
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	10	12:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	1	1	2	1	3	1	+1	2	18:17	3:49
V. Eklund	RW	1	1	2	3	3	1	+1	0	15:16	1:52
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	15:30	2:17
M. Chaffee	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	10:31	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	10:04	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-3	0	20:56	4:36
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	19:45	3:57
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	19:03	4:22
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-2	0	15:35	0:06
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:48	1:56
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:41	1:44
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	10	10:22	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	30:01	4:07
M. Kessel	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	14:13	0:18
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	23:50	0:17
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:56	2:14
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	16:47	0:35
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	38	34	4	.895	58:29	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:58A. Svechnikov14:25W. Carrier13:53

Line 2L. Stankoven13:28J. Blake13:39N. Ehlers12:47

Line 3M. Jankowski10:43S. Jarvis11:23T. Hall10:30

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi8:53J. Martinook10:55E. Robinson8:29

Pair 1J. Slavin21:14J. Chatfield18:10

Pair 2S. Walker16:14K. Miller14:44

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:08J. Välimäki11:42

NYI

Line 1O. Palat12:52J. Pageau13:37A. Duclair11:32

Line 2K. Palmieri13:10B. Horvat13:05S. Holmstrom12:21

Line 3B. Schenn12:57V. Eklund11:17E. Heineman12:01

Line 4K. MacLean10:22M. Chaffee10:31C. Cizikas10:04

Pair 1L. Stanley20:25M. Schaefer23:40

Pair 2A. Pelech15:33T. DeAngelo17:04

Pair 3S. Mayfield6:56M. Kessel12:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

14 of 24 overs hit (58%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	+115	-125	7	Over
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-115	-105	3	Over
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+125	-140	2	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+122	-145	3	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-114	-105	2	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+125	-155	5	Over
CAR S. Aho	2.5	+100	-120	4	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+132	-155	0	Under
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	+120	–	2	Over
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	+125	-145	1	Under
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	+115	-145	1	Under
CAR E. Robinson	1.5	+105	–	0	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	+120	–	1	Under
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	-145	–	2	Over
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	+130	-170	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	1.5	-165	+135	2	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	1.5	+105	–	1	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	+105	-130	3	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	+105	-120	2	Over
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-118	-105	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	+120	–	1	Under
CAR T. Hall	1.5	-132	–	2	Over
NYI V. Eklund	1.5	+115	–	3	Over
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	-110	–	2	Over

8 of 36 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+470	-900	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+2300	-2500	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+400	-750	1	Over
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1200	-2800	1	Over
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+600	-900	1	Over
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
NYI K. MacLean	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
NYI L. Stanley	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
NYI M. Chaffee	0.5	+1000	-2000	1	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+380	-490	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+235	-285	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+310	-470	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
NYI S. Mayfield	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+380	–	0	Under
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+470	-900	1	Over
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+600	-750	1	Over

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+132	-165	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+168	-213	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+215	-250	1	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+140	-165	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+240	-270	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+138	-175	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+115	-145	2	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+127	-160	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+220	-260	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+290	-420	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+260	-295	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+200	-290	0	Under

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-150	+120	2	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+125	-135	2	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-154	+125	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+190	-190	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+125	-135	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	-105	-111	1	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-125	+110	1	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-145	+120	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-170	+155	2	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+200	-230	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+114	-157	0	Under
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+200	-280	2	Over
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+180	-250	2	Over

0 of 19 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+210	-290	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+280	-325	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+340	-400	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-280	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+340	-350	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+220	-250	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+195	-275	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+210	-260	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+190	-275	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+300	-350	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+320	-700	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI V. Eklund	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYI S. Varlamov	26.5	-108	-110	34	Over
CAR B. Bussi	21.5	+105	-105	24	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, NYI 2.7	CAR 5, NYI 3
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	CAR 29.6, NYI 23.9	CAR 39, NYI 27
Win chance	CAR 60%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.80	0	34%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	2	0.73	1	20%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	0	0.73	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	4	0.88	2	31%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	7	0.72	2	28%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	3	0.61	1	26%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.2	2	0.76	1	26%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.2	5	0.74	0	24%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	2	0.60	0	25%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.7	2	0.33	0	8%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	2	0.49	0	18%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.6	2	0.61	0	24%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	3	0.60	0	10%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	1	0.57	2	22%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	0	0.29	0	5%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.4	1	0.42	0	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.4	1	0.36	0	7%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	2	0.31	2	13%	1
NYI E. Heineman	1.3	1	0.28	1	16%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.3	3	0.39	2	17%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.3	2	0.38	1	7%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	2	0.32	1	13%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	0	0.30	0	13%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.26	2	5%	1
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	2	0.39	0	17%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.2	0	0.34	0	7%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	3	0.44	0	16%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	3	0.30	1	11%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.1	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	2	0.31	0	13%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	1	0.21	1	10%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NYI M. Chaffee	0.7	3	0.16	1	9%	1
NYI K. MacLean	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	0	0.11	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.