Game Recap: CAR 3, NYR 1, December 22, 2024

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Game Recap

CAR3

FinalSun, Dec 22, 2024Every game that night

NYR1

CAR beat NYR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.47 expected goals to 2.60. CAR outshot NYR 33 to 23. S. Walker had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. P. Kochetkov stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	2	1	3
NYR	1	0	0	1

1st 0:17NYRJ. Vesey0.07 xG
2nd 9:14CARW. Carrier0.73 xG
2nd 14:32CARJ. RoslovicPP0.16 xG
3rd 18:18CARS. AhoEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

CARNYR

33Shots on goal23

5.47Expected goals2.60

71Shot attempts48

245v5 shots on goal18

1/5Power play0/4

26Hits33

14Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways14

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 5.47 xGNYR 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR33 on goal, 3 scored

NYR23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	23:46	7:39
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	17:47	0:31
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	2	16:22	7:31
W. Carrier	LW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	12:59	0:19
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	4	4	1	0	0	12:16	0:31
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	23:39	7:02
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:27	7:27
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	16:22	0:19
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:34	2:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:39	2:37
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	8:42	2:10
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:56	0:18
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	19:36	0:19
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	20:28	1:23
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	20:05	0:08
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:10	8:05
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	13:14	1:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
D. Tokarski	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Vesey	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	8:00	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	7:38	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	23:59	4:56
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:29	4:34
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	4	20:20	4:32
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	18:58	4:30
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:11	4:35
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:16	2:18
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:25	2:56
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	12:50	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:53	3:01
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	10:40	0:00
C. Ruhwedel	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:15	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	24:54	5:59
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	19:58	1:31
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:42	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	18:27	0:08
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	32	30	2	.938	57:37	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, NYR 3.0	CAR 3, NYR 1
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	CAR 33.7, NYR 27.7	CAR 33, NYR 23
Win chance	CAR 53%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	5	0.77	1	26%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.7	1	0.83	0	25%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.6	1	1.05	0	30%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	2	0.91	1	30%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.3	1	0.69	0	25%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	1	0.76	0	25%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.2	1	0.64	0	33%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	3	0.59	0	23%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.0	3	0.71	0	23%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.9	3	0.39	0	8%	0
NYR F. Chytil	1.9	0	0.45	0	18%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.7	2	0.41	0	15%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	0	0.46	0	19%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	3	0.56	0	9%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.6	2	0.51	0	18%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	0	0.37	0	14%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.5	4	0.43	1	15%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.35	1	13%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	1	0.76	0	11%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.5	0	0.38	1	7%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.5	4	0.29	0	13%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	3	0.27	0	7%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.3	4	0.20	0	5%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.3	1	0.32	1	5%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	1	0.26	1	13%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	0	0.35	0	13%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.2	1	0.25	0	13%	0
CAR T. Jost	1.1	1	0.21	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR J. Vesey	0.8	3	0.21	1	9%	1
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	2	0.14	1	9%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.7	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	0	0.14	0	2%	0
NYR C. Ruhwedel	0.6	1	0.10	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.