Game Recap: CAR 2, NYR 0, February 5, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR2

FinalThu, Feb 5, 2026Every game that night

NYR0

CAR beat NYR 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.25 expected goals to 1.55. CAR outshot NYR 43 to 16. J. Slavin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. B. Bussi stopped 16 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	0	1	2
NYR	0	0	0	0

1st 6:26CARA. Svechnikov0.11 xG
3rd 19:06CARJ. StaalEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

CARNYR

43Shots on goal16

4.25Expected goals1.55

85Shot attempts35

365v5 shots on goal12

0/3Power play0/2

11Hits27

10Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.25 xGNYR 1.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR43 on goal, 2 scored

NYR14 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:20	5:01
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:21	2:09
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	16:01	3:38
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:54	0:17
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	10:14	0:00
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:55	5:22
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:44	5:22
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:12
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	13:39	0:12
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:35	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	10:56	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:34	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	22:07	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	20:31	0:14
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+2	0	20:22	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	19:21	5:20
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	17:46	0:16
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	16	16	0	1.000	59:57	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	1	-2	0	21:57	2:43
V. Trocheck	C	3	4	1	-1	2	20:31	2:39
J. Miller	C	2	2	1	-2	0	18:38	2:31
W. Cuylle	LW	4	4	1	-1	0	18:05	1:18
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	16:43	1:17
A. Lafrenière	LW	2	1	1	-1	0	15:48	2:42
T. Raddysh	RW	1	0	2	0	0	15:21	1:18
J. Brodzinski	C	0	3	0	0	0	13:50	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	0	0	13:36	1:20
A. Blidh	LW	0	2	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	1	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	4	1	-1	0	7:08	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	0	-2	4	22:37	2:14
B. Schneider	D	0	3	1	-1	0	22:20	1:46
M. Robertson	D	1	0	5	0	0	20:56	0:12
W. Borgen	D	1	0	2	0	0	18:31	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	1	0	0	16:50	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	1	3	0	0	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	42	41	1	.976	59:14	Loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Jarvis14:50S. Aho13:41A. Svechnikov13:19

Line 2L. Stankoven14:12J. Blake13:47T. Hall13:27

Line 3J. Staal13:38J. Martinook11:21N. Ehlers12:13

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi9:34W. Carrier10:20M. Jankowski8:46

Pair 1J. Slavin17:11J. Chatfield18:52

Pair 2S. Walker18:42K. Miller16:46

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:01A. Nikishin13:30

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:35G. Perreault15:26J. Miller13:49

Line 2V. Trocheck14:27A. Lafrenière12:20W. Cuylle12:49

Line 3J. Brodzinski13:50T. Raddysh14:03N. Laba11:48

Line 4S. Carrick8:36A. Blidh9:04M. Rempe7:08

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:22B. Schneider18:31

Pair 2W. Borgen14:53M. Robertson18:59

Pair 3U. Vaakanainen13:19V. Iorio14:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamK'Andre Miller CAR Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20252 SOG
BirthdayWill Cuylle NYR Turns 24 that day4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, NYR 2.8	CAR 2, NYR 0
Total goals	6.1	2
Shots on goal	CAR 30.0, NYR 23.3	CAR 43, NYR 16
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	2	0.85	0	30%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	5	0.85	1	27%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	1	0.94	0	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	2	0.79	1	26%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.2	0	0.95	0	31%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	2	1.01	0	30%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	3	0.81	0	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	3	0.24	0	7%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	2	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	5	0.62	0	11%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.7	3	0.47	1	19%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	2	0.57	0	21%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	4	0.46	0	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	3	0.49	0	18%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	5	0.32	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	3	0.47	1	18%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.5	2	0.39	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	2	0.27	0	7%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	1	0.42	0	15%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.39	0	9%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	2	0.31	0	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	2	0.23	0	11%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.0	1	0.24	0	7%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.28	1	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.8	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
NYR V. Iorio	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.6	0	0.16	0	2%	0
NYR A. Blidh	0.6	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.