Game Recap: CAR 3, PHI 2 (OT), May 9, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR3

Final/OTSat, May 9, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

PHI2

CAR beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.33 expected goals to 2.99. CAR outshot PHI 40 to 17. J. Blake led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Gostisbehere had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. F. Andersen stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CAR	0	1	1	1	3
PHI	1	0	1	0	2

1st 7:50PHIT. Foerster0.16 xG
2nd 12:35CARJ. Blake0.01 xG
3rd 4:13CARL. Stankoven0.21 xG
3rd 5:52PHIA. Bump0.15 xG
OT 5:31CARJ. Blake0.13 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI

40Shots on goal17

3.33Expected goals2.99

83Shot attempts39

375v5 shots on goal15

0/3Power play0/3

29Hits39

7Blocked shots24

6Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways19

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.33 xGPHI 2.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR39 on goal, 3 scored

PHI17 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	2	1	3	3	1	1	+2	0	17:29	1:20
T. Hall	LW	0	3	3	3	1	1	+2	0	16:36	0:55
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	16:12	1:16
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	21:18	4:45
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	20:07	4:19
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:31	4:15
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:17	4:22
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	17:05	0:33
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	14:26	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:04	0:30
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	+2	0	24:30	1:31
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	21:09	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	23:13	0:17
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:42	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	18:57	4:07
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	17	15	2	.882	65:19	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	0	19:20	2:53
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:31	3:23
P. Martone	RW	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	2	17:37	3:03
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	-2	0	16:49	2:03
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	7	2	-1	0	16:33	3:15
A. Bump	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-2	0	14:06	0:07
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	20:32	2:55
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	15:21	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:59	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:02	0:00
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:51	1:29
J. Luchanko	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:31	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	28:46	0:02
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	1	8	+2	0	24:35	0:11
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	23:34	1:45
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	22:41	2:09
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:11	0:00
O. Bonk	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:36	1:35

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	40	37	3	.925	65:31	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall15:41J. Blake15:35L. Stankoven14:34

Line 2S. Aho14:43S. Jarvis13:48A. Svechnikov12:43

Line 3J. Staal14:29J. Martinook14:06N. Ehlers14:16

Line 4W. Carrier11:34E. Robinson11:12M. Jankowski10:24

Pair 1S. Walker21:13K. Miller21:15

Pair 2J. Slavin17:32J. Chatfield19:06

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:38A. Nikishin14:56

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier15:07G. Hathaway13:30L. Glendening11:59

Line 2T. Zegras14:56P. Martone14:22T. Foerster13:43

Line 3C. Grundstrom13:36J. Luchanko12:31D. Barkey12:22

Line 4C. Dvorak13:06T. Konecny13:18A. Bump13:59

Pair 1T. Sanheim24:53R. Ristolainen20:55

Pair 2J. Drysdale20:20C. York19:42

Pair 3N. Seeler12:25O. Bonk11:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, PHI 2.7	CAR 3, PHI 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CAR 28.8, PHI 23.4	CAR 40, PHI 17
Win chance	CAR 60%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	4	0.82	0	31%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	1	0.85	0	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	3	0.73	0	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.91	0	32%	0
PHI P. Martone	2.2	5	0.58	1	20%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	2	0.54	1	22%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.0	3	0.60	3	22%	2
PHI T. Konecny	1.9	1	0.77	1	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	2	0.33	0	9%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.52	1	26%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.8	3	0.61	3	21%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	0	0.48	0	15%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	0	0.67	1	23%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	6	0.61	0	12%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	0	0.54	1	18%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	3	0.30	1	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	2	0.48	0	19%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	3	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.26	0	8%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	1	0.35	0	6%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	2	0.45	1	9%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.3	1	0.40	1	17%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.3	1	0.24	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.33	0	8%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.1	2	0.38	0	10%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	0	0.30	0	8%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	0	0.36	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.28	0	14%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.9	0	0.16	0	9%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	2	0.17	0	9%	0
PHI J. Luchanko	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.