CAR beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 2.15. CAR outshot SEA 39 to 19. S. Jarvis led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Drury had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. F. Andersen stopped 18 of 19.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.01 xGSEA 2.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:51 | 8:06 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:15 | 8:06 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 8:07 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 2:48 |
| J. Drury | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 2:49 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:37 | 8:09 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:48 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:40 | 2:46 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:33 |
| D. Orlov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:01 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 8:22 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 3:01 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 3:03 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:48 | 3:10 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 2:54 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 3:11 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 2:57 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:14 | 3:06 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 2:37 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 22:38 | 2:42 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:43 | 3:18 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 38 | 35 | 3 | .921 | 59:11 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, SEA 2.7 | CAR 4, SEA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.8, SEA 26.5 | CAR 39, SEA 19 |
| Win chance | CAR 59% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 3 | 0.96 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 5 | 0.46 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.