Game Recap: CAR 1, SEA 2, March 2, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR1

FinalMon, Mar 2, 2026Every game that night

SEA2

SEA beat CAR 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.69 expected goals to 2.69. CAR outshot SEA 36 to 15. A. Larsson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Svechnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Daccord stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
SEA	0	2	0	2

2nd 3:22SEAK. Kakko0.10 xG
2nd 8:48SEAB. Meyers0.12 xG
2nd 18:30CARN. Ehlers0.13 xG

Team Stats

CARSEA

36Shots on goal15

2.69Expected goals1.69

81Shot attempts28

325v5 shots on goal13

0/1Power play0/3

13Hits31

6Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways17

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.69 xGSEA 1.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR35 on goal, 1 scored

SEA14 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:02	1:29
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	15:42	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	19:57	1:29
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	19:38	1:29
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	17:18	1:29
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:23	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16:14	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:51	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	2	15:49	1:29
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:30	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	8:29	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:51	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:41	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	22:48	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	21:12	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-2	0	19:39	1:29
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:39	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	15	13	2	.867	57:39	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	14:36	0:14
B. Meyers	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:08	0:14
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:09	2:05
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:58	3:07
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:13	3:12
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:43	3:07
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	3	4	-1	2	17:21	3:04
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:19	2:39
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:55	2:44
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:59	3:05
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	7	2	+1	0	12:20	0:14
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:48	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	21:42	0:14
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	23:42	3:01
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:46	3:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	11	2	0	0	18:06	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	0	14:08	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	36	35	1	.972	59:46	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall16:00L. Stankoven16:09J. Blake15:37

Line 2S. Jarvis15:00S. Aho15:10A. Svechnikov13:28

Line 3J. Martinook13:54N. Ehlers14:41J. Staal13:03

Line 4M. Jankowski7:03E. Robinson7:21W. Carrier6:51

Pair 1S. Walker18:25K. Miller18:29

Pair 2J. Slavin18:34J. Chatfield16:24

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere17:18A. Nikishin13:38

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:07M. Beniers15:55J. McCann14:36

Line 2J. Schwartz13:40E. Tolvanen13:13C. Stephenson15:02

Line 3F. Gaudreau12:53B. Meyers12:08J. Melanson12:06

Line 4K. Kakko10:04S. Wright9:54B. Catton10:38

Pair 1A. Larsson19:05V. Dunn19:39

Pair 2B. Montour19:42J. Oleksiak16:37

Pair 3R. Evans13:52C. Fleury13:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, SEA 2.7	CAR 1, SEA 2
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	CAR 31.1, SEA 23.1	CAR 36, SEA 15
Win chance	CAR 59%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	2	0.77	0	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	5	0.74	0	26%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	4	0.72	1	25%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.3	2	0.77	0	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	4	0.87	0	31%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.1	1	0.43	0	13%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	4	0.66	0	11%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	2	0.24	1	6%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	0	0.48	0	20%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	2	0.43	0	17%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	2	0.63	0	23%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	4	0.51	0	20%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	1	0.47	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	0	0.58	0	21%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	2	0.44	0	19%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	3	0.32	0	6%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.6	0	0.49	0	11%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.38	0	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.27	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	0	0.47	0	20%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	3	0.38	1	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.42	1	15%	1
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	2	0.26	1	12%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.25	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	0	0.21	0	11%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.62	0	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.0	0	0.26	2	7%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.0	0	0.35	1	14%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.0	1	0.10	0	3%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.0	0	0.23	0	11%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.6	1	0.22	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.