Game Recap: CAR 4, SEA 1, November 12, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night

SEA1

CAR beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.38 expected goals to 1.87. CAR outshot SEA 30 to 13. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Välimäki had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. B. Bussi stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	1	1	4
SEA	0	0	1	1

1st 11:44CARN. Ehlers0.03 xG
1st 12:50CARS. AhoPP0.18 xG
2nd 9:34CARJ. Välimäki0.04 xG
3rd 11:41CARS. Aho0.09 xG
3rd 13:15SEAF. Gaudreau0.12 xG

Team Stats

CARSEA

30Shots on goal13

3.38Expected goals1.87

84Shot attempts36

265v5 shots on goal11

1/3Power play0/2

12Hits23

10Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways19

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.38 xGSEA 1.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR30 on goal, 4 scored

SEA12 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:53	3:30
N. Ehlers	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	17:45	3:29
L. Stankoven	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	15:51	0:28
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	18:14	3:32
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	2	17:52	3:29
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:26	0:26
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	14:47	0:31
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:23	0:31
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	12:03	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:30	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	2	2	1	3	1	+2	0	22:48	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	13:59	0:33
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:41	0:04
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:55	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:49	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:52	3:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	13	12	1	.923	59:45	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:02	1:53
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	16:09	0:01
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:33	2:09
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:24	2:08
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:36	2:07
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	15:26	2:09
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:14	1:49
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:58	1:51
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	13:39	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:28	1:51
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:58	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:13	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	24:39	0:02
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	2	24:33	1:46
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:05	2:14
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:49	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	14:44	0:00
V. Ottavainen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	30	26	4	.867	59:55	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven15:17J. Blake14:18N. Ehlers14:11

Line 2S. Aho13:05A. Svechnikov14:42W. Carrier13:01

Line 3T. Hall14:16S. Jarvis12:42M. Jankowski12:31

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi10:43E. Robinson10:31J. Martinook9:41

Pair 1S. Walker19:29K. Miller20:22

Pair 2J. Slavin19:02J. Chatfield17:38

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:25J. Välimäki13:26

SEA

Line 1B. McMann14:29M. Beniers15:24J. Eberle13:17

Line 2C. Stephenson14:14M. Samoskevich14:49F. Gaudreau13:17

Line 3K. Kakko13:07B. Catton13:20M. Wood11:37

Line 4R. Winterton12:09B. Meyers9:41J. Nyman9:13

Pair 1R. Evans23:32B. Montour21:07

Pair 2A. Larsson17:03V. Dunn19:16

Pair 3J. Mahura12:04V. Ottavainen10:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	+100	-118	3	Over
SEA B. McMann	2.5	+134	-170	1	Under
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+130	-150	1	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+128	-155	1	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+120	-130	3	Over
CAR S. Aho	2.5	-115	+100	2	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+130	-162	1	Under
SEA B. Catton	1.5	+120	-150	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	1.5	-170	+150	2	Over
SEA J. Eberle	1.5	-110	-105	0	Under
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	+125	-154	1	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	1.5	-125	+110	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-140	+120	3	Over
CAR T. Hall	1.5	-155	+135	3	Over
SEA V. Dunn	1.5	-135	+110	1	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	-225	+170	0	Under

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+300	-320	0	Under
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+750	-800	0	Under
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.5	+650	-1400	1	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
SEA J. Mahura	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
SEA J. Nyman	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+1000	–	1	Over
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+360	-440	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
SEA M. Wood	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+230	-275	1	Over
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
SEA R. Winterton	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+145	-180	2	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+325	-400	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
SEA V. Ottavainen	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under

4 of 16 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+125	-152	1	Over
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+330	-375	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+120	-125	1	Over
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+205	-235	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+200	-250	2	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+235	-240	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+110	-120	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+118	-150	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+170	-195	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+155	-197	0	Under

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CAR S. Aho	1.5	+176	-220	2	Over
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-150	+136	1	Over
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+170	-225	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+165	-195	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-170	+145	1	Over
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	-115	+100	2	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+115	-132	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-170	+145	2	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+210	-295	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-290	1	Over
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SEA M. Wood	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+200	-275	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+210	-240	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+195	-275	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SEA P. Grubauer	26.5	-102	-130	26	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneBrandon Montour SEA 2 goals from 100Not yet: 2 SOG
MilestoneTaylor Hall CAR Plays his 1,000th game3 SOG
BirthdayAdam Larsson SEA Turns 34 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.8, SEA 2.7	CAR 4, SEA 1
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	CAR 32.4, SEA 22.4	CAR 30, SEA 13
Win chance	CAR 66%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	3	0.82	1	30%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.4	1	0.55	0	26%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	2	0.98	2	32%	2
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	1	0.66	2	27%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.3	1	0.85	1	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.2	3	0.82	2	26%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.2	1	0.74	0	29%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.1	2	0.48	0	14%	0
SEA M. Samoskevich	2.0	0	0.50	1	21%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	1	0.33	0	8%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	3	0.62	0	11%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	3	0.56	0	20%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.7	1	0.50	0	11%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.7	0	0.58	0	23%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	1	0.29	0	5%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	1	0.54	0	21%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	2	0.41	0	15%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.4	1	0.31	0	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.38	2	6%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.4	2	0.45	0	21%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.27	0	5%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	0	0.37	0	14%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	0	0.47	0	17%	0
SEA M. Wood	1.3	0	0.35	0	16%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.2	0	0.26	0	10%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	0	0.37	0	13%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.0	1	0.49	0	15%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.9	4	0.22	1	5%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	0.9	1	0.52	0	13%	0
SEA V. Ottavainen	0.9	0	0.10	0	3%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.9	3	0.29	1	12%	1
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.26	0	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.