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Game Recap
CAR3
SJS1
CAR beat SJS 3-1, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 3.02. F. Andersen stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Team Stats
CARSJS
29Shots on goal25
2.75Expected goals3.02
62Shot attempts54
275v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play0/3
7Hits27
19Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways18
2Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.75 xGSJS 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:52 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:46 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 17:04 | 2:23 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:02 | 2:46 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:37 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:31 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 1:37 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:37 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:37 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:46 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:23 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:21 | 4:03 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 4:10 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:54 | 3:59 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:10 | 4:10 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:17 | 3:57 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:39 | 1:50 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 1:50 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| L. Cagnoni | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 4:10 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:01 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:50 |
| J. Schuldt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Romanov | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 56:42 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.7, SJS 2.5 | CAR 3, SJS 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 32.6, SJS 25.1 | CAR 29, SJS 25 |
| Win chance | CAR 67% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.1 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 5 | 1.12 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.8 | 4 | 0.62 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS P. Giles | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.