Game Recap: CAR 5, SJS 1, October 14, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalTue, Oct 14, 2025Every game that night

SJS1

CAR beat SJS 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 2.03. CAR outshot SJS 43 to 17. L. Stankoven led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Reilly had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. B. Bussi stopped 16 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	3	2	5
SJS	0	1	0	1

2nd 1:24CARS. Walker0.04 xG
2nd 4:38SJSW. Eklund0.10 xG
2nd 14:14CARW. Carrier0.18 xG
2nd 18:39CARE. Robinson0.05 xG
3rd 1:52CARS. Gostisbehere0.25 xG
3rd 7:25CARJ. Blake0.04 xG

Team Stats

CARSJS

43Shots on goal17

3.87Expected goals2.03

83Shot attempts36

365v5 shots on goal11

0/3Power play0/5

13Hits21

8Blocked shots18

12Penalty minutes8

21Giveaways15

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.87 xGSJS 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR42 on goal, 5 scored

SJS17 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Stankoven	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	0	17:03	2:02
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:26	3:13
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:19	3:06
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	2	16:42	2:01
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:41	0:08
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	12:48	1:54
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:00	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	2	10:51	0:11
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	15:04	3:14
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:01	0:09
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:30	3:18
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	9:40	0:00
S. Walker	D	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	2	21:44	2:09
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:24	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+2	2	18:48	3:14
M. Reilly	D	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	18:13	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	2	17:14	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	22:32	2:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	17	16	1	.941	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	20:28	5:03
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	18:05	4:55
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:12	5:12
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:34	4:11
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:26	4:01
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	15:06	3:38
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	13:57	5:01
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	13:54	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:37	3:59
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	13:26	0:11
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	10:52	0:11
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	9:46	0:12
N. Leddy	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:39	0:12
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	23:20	4:06
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	20:48	0:21
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	18:52	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-1	0	17:06	5:05
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	4	11:52	0:37

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	43	38	5	.884	60:00	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven14:13J. Blake13:55T. Hall10:54

Line 2N. Ehlers11:50S. Aho11:47S. Jarvis11:03

Line 3J. Staal11:16J. Martinook11:07W. Carrier10:40

Line 4M. Jankowski7:19E. Robinson8:35A. Svechnikov10:12

Pair 1K. Miller16:01S. Walker15:18

Pair 2M. Reilly14:17J. Chatfield14:43

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere15:21A. Nikishin14:34

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund14:36M. Celebrini14:32T. Toffoli13:10

Line 2M. Misa11:28P. Kurashev10:47T. Dellandrea10:17

Line 3R. Reaves10:41B. Goodrow10:05A. Gaudette9:34

Line 4J. Skinner9:38A. Wennberg10:05W. Smith8:56

Pair 1N. Leddy16:50T. Liljegren16:37

Pair 2D. Orlov16:58M. Ferraro15:35

Pair 3J. Klingberg12:01S. Dickinson11:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDmitry Orlov SJS Faces CAR, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.8, SJS 2.5	CAR 5, SJS 1
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	CAR 32.9, SJS 23.4	CAR 43, SJS 17
Win chance	CAR 69%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR N. Ehlers	3.2	5	1.02	0	33%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.9	3	1.17	1	38%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	1	1.03	1	35%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	0	0.80	0	24%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.7	1	0.67	1	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	1	0.93	0	31%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	4	0.59	2	22%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	4	0.59	1	22%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.1	3	0.33	1	9%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.0	3	0.71	0	22%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	0	0.60	1	22%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.8	5	0.32	1	7%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	2	0.62	1	18%	1
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	2	0.47	0	21%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	3	0.72	1	12%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.6	0	0.48	0	18%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	2	0.50	0	11%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	2	0.51	1	17%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	4	0.30	1	15%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.30	1	10%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.3	1	0.35	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	2	0.33	1	13%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.2	0	0.35	0	7%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.2	0	0.36	0	17%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	0	0.39	0	14%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	3	0.46	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	3	0.39	1	5%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	0	0.21	0	8%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	0.9	1	0.27	0	13%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.5	1	0.20	1	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.4	1	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.