STL beat CAR 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.19. CAR outshot STL 40 to 19. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Svechnikov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Hofer stopped 37 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 1:21CARA. Svechnikov0.13 xG
- 2nd 10:22STLM. Joseph0.19 xG
- 2nd 11:35STLJ. Neighbours0.01 xG
- 2nd 13:31STLD. Holloway0.11 xG
- 3rd 1:39CARS. GostisbeherePP0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:57CARJ. Roslovic0.03 xG
- 3rd 4:26STLK. Kapanen0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.19 xGSTL 2.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:19 | 2:35 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:38 | 2:34 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 2:31 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:55 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 1:59 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:34 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:07 | 1:56 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:53 | 1:56 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:48 | 2:35 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 1:55 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 19 | 15 | 4 | .789 | 57:56 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:45 | 4:11 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:04 | 3:48 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 3:44 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:02 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 2:30 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:58 | 4:15 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 4:19 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 3:41 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:59 | 4:17 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:05 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:01 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:28 | 1:08 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:26 | 3:28 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:47 | 4:31 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 40 | 37 | 3 | .925 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, STL 3.0 | CAR 3, STL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 33.9, STL 27.0 | CAR 40, STL 19 |
| Win chance | CAR 54% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 8 | 0.76 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.2 | 5 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| STL K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.