Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CAR6
VAN4
CAR beat VAN 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.79 expected goals to 2.04. CAR outshot VAN 33 to 22. N. Ehlers scored three for CAR. E. Pettersson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. B. Bussi stopped 18 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| VAN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 1:17CARA. SvechnikovPP0.16 xG
- 1st 16:31VANM. RossiPP0.13 xG
- 1st 17:15VANF. Hronek0.08 xG
- 2nd 2:30CARS. Walker0.14 xG
- 2nd 4:19CARN. Ehlers0.10 xG
- 2nd 11:53CARS. Aho0.09 xG
- 2nd 12:50CARN. Ehlers0.05 xG
- 2nd 19:17VANB. BoeserPP0.37 xG
- 3rd 6:45VANN. Hoglander0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:46CARN. EhlersEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
CARVAN
33Shots on goal22
3.79Expected goals2.04
65Shot attempts40
255v5 shots on goal17
2/3Power play2/4
13Hits30
11Blocked shots17
10Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways18
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.79 xGVAN 2.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:06 | 3:11 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:47 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:15 | 3:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 2:58 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 1:33 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:36 | 1:52 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 1:49 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:51 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:08 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 2:02 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:07 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:46 | 2:47 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:56 | 3:35 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 3:30 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 3:42 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 3:17 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:02 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:57 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:50 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:43 | 3:26 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:11 | 0:11 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:04 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:06 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 31:53 | |
| N. Tolopilo | 10 | 9 | 1 | .900 | 27:17 | Loss |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Aho15:26A. Svechnikov15:09S. Jarvis15:14
Line 2J. Martinook12:18N. Ehlers12:55J. Staal12:18
Line 3L. Stankoven12:29J. Blake12:44T. Hall11:59
Line 4E. Robinson10:25J. Kotkaniemi10:28W. Carrier10:17
Pair 2J. Slavin18:51J. Chatfield18:28
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere12:11A. Nikishin12:59
VAN
Line 1D. O'Connor14:48D. Kampf12:56J. DeBrusk12:02
Line 3T. Blueger14:21M. Sasson11:47L. Karlsson11:33
Line 4C. Garland12:32N. Hoglander11:39E. Pettersson12:31
Pair 1M. Pettersson20:42T. Willander16:30
Pair 2F. Hronek19:43E. Pettersson16:33
Pair 3Z. Buium14:56V. Mancini12:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.5, VAN 2.7 | CAR 6, VAN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.4, VAN 23.6 | CAR 33, VAN 22 |
| Win chance | CAR 63% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.8 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 3 | 0.84 | 3 | 26% | 3 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.8 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.8 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 4 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.