Game Recap: CAR 0, WPG 3, February 4, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR0

FinalTue, Feb 4, 2025Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat CAR 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 2.08. N. Niederreiter led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Niederreiter had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. E. Comrie stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	0	0	0
WPG	1	1	1	3

1st 19:18WPGN. NiederreiterPP0.13 xG
2nd 3:13WPGN. PionkPP0.16 xG
3rd 16:17WPGR. Kupari0.59 xG

Team Stats

CARWPG

29Shots on goal30

2.08Expected goals3.13

72Shot attempts47

265v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play2/4

13Hits24

10Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways14

15Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.08 xGWPG 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR29 on goal, 0 scored

WPG30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	RW	2	0	0	0	0	22:59	2:10
S. Aho	C	1	0	0	0	0	21:33	2:11
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	0	0	19:22	2:10
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	18:55	2:18
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	17:03	0:59
J. Kotkaniemi	C	1	0	0	0	0	15:28	0:56
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	0	0	0	14:48	0:00
T. Hall	LW	3	1	0	0	2	13:45	0:58
J. Staal	C	3	4	0	0	0	13:32	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	2	0	0	-1	0	10:35	0:59
E. Robinson	LW	2	0	0	0	0	9:38	0:00
J. Slavin	D	3	1	2	0	0	20:49	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	1	1	0	0	0	18:21	0:00
D. Orlov	D	3	2	1	0	0	18:18	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	3	0	2	16:59	2:10
S. Walker	D	0	2	3	0	2	16:08	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	2	0	0	-1	0	15:46	0:59
S. Morrow	D	2	0	0	-1	0	10:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	1	2	5	2	2	0	0	17:33	2:22
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:45	2:21
R. Kupari	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	16:29	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	15:59	2:20
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	15:40	0:02
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	12:44	2:11
D. Gustafsson	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	7:40	0:01
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:00	2:12
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:43	2:11
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:59	2:06
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	15:13	2:11
P. Ford	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	6:54	0:05
N. Pionk	D	1	0	1	2	6	3	0	0	24:10	2:25
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	23:17	0:10
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:02	2:08
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	18:42	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	29	29	0	1.000	59:55	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNikolaj Ehlers CAR Faces WPG, his team until May 20255 SOG
HometownSeth Jarvis CAR Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.6, WPG 2.7	CAR 0, WPG 3
Total goals	5.3	3
Shots on goal	CAR 29.3, WPG 25.5	CAR 29, WPG 30
Win chance	WPG 52%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.9	1	0.96	0	35%	0
CAR M. Rantanen	2.7	1	0.96	0	34%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.7	1	0.87	0	31%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	1	0.66	0	24%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	5	0.80	0	25%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.3	2	0.67	0	27%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.3	0	0.39	0	9%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	0	0.88	0	32%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	1	0.39	0	20%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	5	0.46	2	21%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	1	0.73	0	28%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	1	0.66	0	11%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	2	0.51	1	17%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.6	0	0.19	0	5%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	3	0.44	0	17%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	2	0.44	0	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	1	0.38	0	14%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	3	0.35	0	6%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.5	3	0.34	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	3	0.38	0	14%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	2	0.45	1	7%	1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	1	0.36	0	15%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	2	0.33	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.22	0	7%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.4	2	0.37	0	15%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	3	0.34	1	13%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	3	0.48	1	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	0	0.30	1	12%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	1	0.26	0	4%	0
WPG R. Kupari	1.0	3	0.19	1	8%	1
WPG C. Miller	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.9	0	0.18	1	6%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.