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Game Recap
CAR4
FinalFri, Nov 21, 2025Every game that night
WPG3

CAR beat WPG 4-3, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.14. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). G. Vilardi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. B. Bussi stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CAR1214
WPG2013
  1. 1st 0:16CARJ. Staal0.08 xG
  2. 1st 3:45WPGJ. Morrissey0.13 xG
  3. 1st 9:28WPGG. VilardiPP0.21 xG
  4. 2nd 3:08CARJ. Staal0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 6:31CARS. JarvisSH0.53 xG
  6. 3rd 3:19CARA. SvechnikovPP0.17 xG
  7. 3rd 4:13WPGG. Vilardi0.05 xG

Team Stats

CARWPG
28Shots on goal28
2.35Expected goals2.14
64Shot attempts49
215v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play1/3
13Hits29
9Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways18
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.35 xGWPG 2.14 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdCAR goal, 0:16WPG goal, 3:45WPG goal, 9:28CAR goal, 3:08CAR goal, 6:31CAR goal, 3:19WPG goal, 4:13

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR28 on goal, 4 scored
WPG28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC0222110019:484:03
J. StaalC202200+1015:300:00
S. JarvisC101310+1020:184:04
A. SvechnikovRW101500-1018:034:02
N. EhlersLW0111000017:364:02
J. MartinookLW011220+1013:590:00
J. BlakeRW000010-1015:400:48
L. StankovenC0002000213:530:46
T. HallLW0000010012:070:48
W. CarrierLW000020+1011:320:00
E. RobinsonLW0000200210:260:00
M. JankowskiLW000010009:080:00
K. MillerD0222010222:360:47
J. ChatfieldD0112100021:340:00
S. GostisbehereD000201+1022:424:01
S. WalkerD000412+1219:570:49
J. NystromD0001010016:440:00
M. ReillyD0000120013:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi28253.89360:00Win
F. Andersen000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
G. VilardiC2025010218:492:12
K. ConnorLW011100+1221:282:12
M. ScheifeleC011421+1020:242:12
C. PerfettiC011201-2013:062:12
J. ToewsC000100-1017:172:03
G. NyquistRW0000120014:481:11
V. NamestnikovC000020-1014:071:11
A. LowryC000230-1014:040:00
N. NiederreiterRW000401-1013:131:11
A. IafalloLW0001020211:050:00
M. BarronC0000210010:290:00
C. KoepkeLW000150008:420:00
J. MorrisseyD101314+1026:182:12
D. DeMeloD011032+2020:460:00
N. PionkD000362-1024:321:11
D. SambergD000112-1022:590:00
L. SchennD000020-1011:400:00
L. StanleyD000011-1210:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
E. Comrie28244.85758:47Loss
T. Milic000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho13:51S. Jarvis14:10A. Svechnikov14:01
Line 2L. Stankoven13:07J. Blake13:57N. Ehlers12:20
Line 3J. Staal12:40J. Martinook11:30W. Carrier11:20
Line 4M. Jankowski9:08E. Robinson10:26T. Hall11:09
Pair 1J. Chatfield18:22K. Miller19:32
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere17:38S. Walker16:52
Pair 3M. Reilly12:33J. Nystrom14:34

WPG

Line 1K. Connor17:05M. Scheifele16:52G. Vilardi15:54
Line 2V. Namestnikov12:50C. Perfetti10:42J. Toews14:40
Line 3M. Barron8:55C. Koepke7:52G. Nyquist13:01
Line 4N. Niederreiter12:02A. Iafallo8:23A. Lowry9:50
Pair 1J. Morrissey22:47D. DeMelo19:10
Pair 2D. Samberg17:55N. Pionk17:44
Pair 3L. Schenn10:52L. Stanley10:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamNikolaj Ehlers CAR Faces WPG, his team until May 20251 A, 1 SOG
  • HometownSeth Jarvis CAR Plays in his hometown1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 2.9, WPG 2.9CAR 4, WPG 3
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalCAR 29.6, WPG 25.5CAR 28, WPG 28
Win chanceWPG 52%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.111.04135%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.410.66123%0
CAR S. Aho2.420.79229%0
CAR S. Walker2.340.33010%0
CAR A. Svechnikov2.350.62124%1
CAR S. Jarvis2.330.68126%1
WPG M. Scheifele2.041.00133%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.950.73228%2
CAR J. Blake1.900.46019%0
CAR L. Stankoven1.920.42017%0
WPG C. Perfetti1.820.59120%0
CAR T. Hall1.700.46018%0
CAR M. Reilly1.600.2204%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.620.5709%0
WPG J. Morrissey1.530.66112%1
CAR K. Miller1.520.3828%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.540.41018%0
WPG N. Pionk1.530.3807%0
CAR J. Nystrom1.510.2204%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.410.36015%0
WPG J. Toews1.310.45017%0
WPG M. Barron1.300.28012%0
WPG A. Lowry1.320.38016%0
WPG V. Namestnikov1.300.43015%0
CAR J. Staal1.220.32213%2
CAR J. Chatfield1.220.2116%0
CAR J. Martinook1.220.34113%0
CAR E. Robinson1.200.26011%0
CAR W. Carrier1.200.22011%0
WPG D. Samberg1.110.2404%0
WPG C. Koepke1.010.20010%0
WPG G. Nyquist0.900.34011%0
CAR M. Jankowski0.800.22012%0
WPG L. Stanley0.800.2304%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.800.2614%0
WPG L. Schenn0.700.1002%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.