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Game Recap
CBJ2
BOS4
BOS beat CBJ 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.01 expected goals to 3.94. CBJ outshot BOS 40 to 23. V. Arvidsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Korpisalo stopped 36 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 4:32CBJK. Marchenko0.20 xG
- 1st 15:51BOSV. Arvidsson0.01 xG
- 2nd 6:54BOSM. GeekiePP0.09 xG
- 3rd 11:15BOSS. Kuraly0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:45CBJA. Fantilli0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:27BOSV. ArvidssonEN0.55 xG
Team Stats
CBJBOS
40Shots on goal23
3.94Expected goals3.01
77Shot attempts56
345v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play1/3
24Hits20
11Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways13
6Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 3.94 xGBOS 3.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:54 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:32 | 0:48 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:43 | 1:12 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:54 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:06 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:12 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 1:06 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 28:34 | 1:24 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:48 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:36 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:32 | Loss |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:58 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 3:43 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 2:30 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:35 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:54 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:10 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:13 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:30 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:56 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | 2:46 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:57 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:15 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:56 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 53:57 | Win |
| M. DiPietro | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 6:03 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko17:17A. Fantilli16:47M. Marchment16:30
Line 2M. Olivier12:54C. Sillinger14:04C. Coyle12:26
Line 3S. Monahan11:19K. Johnson11:02D. Voronkov11:00
Line 4M. Wood10:07I. Lundestrom10:23B. Jenner11:31
Pair 1D. Severson20:44Z. Werenski24:41
Pair 2I. Provorov15:59D. Mateychuk15:54
Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:27D. Fabbro14:10
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak17:23E. Lindholm15:14M. Khusnutdinov11:44
Line 2V. Arvidsson12:17C. Mittelstadt13:32P. Zacha12:09
Line 3S. Kuraly12:01T. Jeannot12:43M. Kastelic11:19
Line 4F. Minten12:28M. Eyssimont10:03M. Geekie14:30
Pair 1C. McAvoy19:06J. Aspirot20:06
Pair 2H. Lindholm16:17M. Lohrei16:29
Pair 3N. Zadorov15:59H. Jokiharju15:55
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.3, BOS 3.5 | CBJ 2, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 29.6, BOS 29.1 | CBJ 40, BOS 23 |
| Win chance | BOS 53% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.1 | 2 | 1.46 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.0 | 7 | 0.91 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.7 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.7 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 5 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.4 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 2.0 | 0 | 0.66 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.6 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 5 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.