Game Recap: CBJ 4, BUF 3 (OT), October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ4

Final/OTTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

BUF3

CBJ beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 3.04. M. Wood led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Marchenko had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Greaves stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	1	1	1	1	4
BUF	0	2	1	0	3

1st 6:09CBJE. Chinakhov0.17 xG
2nd 11:39BUFJ. Doan0.20 xG
2nd 14:12BUFR. McLeod0.02 xG
2nd 19:44CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.04 xG
3rd 2:40BUFJ. Dunne0.23 xG
3rd 13:55CBJM. Wood0.11 xG
OT 2:53CBJM. Wood0.16 xG

Team Stats

CBJBUF

39Shots on goal38

3.59Expected goals3.04

77Shot attempts65

365v5 shots on goal34

1/1Power play0/2

23Hits13

14Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways11

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.59 xGBUF 3.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ39 on goal, 4 scored

BUF37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Wood	LW	2	0	2	3	4	0	+3	0	13:24	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	12:49	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:05	0:24
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	6	0	1	-1	2	15:52	0:24
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	13:48	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:31	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	16:56	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:38	0:24
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	15:33	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	15:24	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:44	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	13:59	0:24
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	5	0	3	+1	0	27:59	0:24
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:54	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	26:13	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:55	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	2	20:07	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	38	35	3	.921	62:53	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	15:39	1:35
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:17	0:39
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	13:50	2:25
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	13:48	0:00
J. Dunne	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	12:45	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	19:56	1:38
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	0	19:26	2:20
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:13	2:22
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:20	2:25
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:03	1:40
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:47	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:16	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	19:48	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	19:19	0:56
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:42	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	6	1	2	0	0	23:01	2:20
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	21:07	1:40
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	17:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	39	35	4	.897	62:53	OT loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1B. Jenner15:50A. Fantilli16:27K. Johnson14:18

Line 2S. Monahan13:50K. Marchenko14:34D. Voronkov13:35

Line 3M. Wood12:56E. Chinakhov12:49I. Lundestrom12:58

Line 4M. Olivier13:37C. Sillinger13:13C. Coyle12:13

Pair 1D. Severson19:30I. Provorov21:36

Pair 2Z. Werenski25:08D. Mateychuk19:44

Pair 3D. Fabbro14:54J. Christiansen10:48

BUF

Line 1J.Kulich16:46Z. Benson16:51T. Thompson16:27

Line 2J. Zucker12:48J. Quinn14:00N. Ostlund12:16

Line 3A. Tuch12:57R. McLeod14:16J. Doan11:25

Line 4B. Malenstyn13:24J. Dunne12:45P. Krebs12:47

Pair 1R. Dahlin19:09M. Samuelsson19:24

Pair 2C. Timmins18:42O. Power18:47

Pair 3M. Kesselring17:58B. Byram17:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.4, BUF 3.6	CBJ 4, BUF 3
Total goals	7.1	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.7, BUF 31.3	CBJ 39, BUF 38
Win chance	BUF 53%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.6	6	1.04	0	43%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	5	0.87	2	18%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	6	0.84	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	6	0.82	1	31%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	0	0.84	2	32%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.3	1	0.52	0	24%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.3	0	0.66	0	20%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.3	5	0.57	1	20%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	2	0.82	1	24%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.1	4	0.55	0	24%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	1	0.62	0	25%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	3	0.64	0	25%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	1	0.60	0	23%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	2	0.56	0	20%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.7	3	0.33	0	7%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	2	0.45	0	8%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	2	0.68	0	22%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.39	0	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	1	0.67	1	22%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.41	0	9%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.4	3	0.24	2	11%	2
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	2	0.32	2	14%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.35	0	15%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	2	0.48	0	18%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.3	0	0.36	1	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.47	1	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.39	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	0	0.33	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.2	2	0.18	1	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.35	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.27	1	6%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	1	0.27	1	6%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.9	3	0.15	0	10%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	3	0.12	1	9%	1
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.6	1	0.19	1	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.