Game Recap: CBJ 1, CAR 4, December 9, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ1

FinalTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

CAR4

CAR beat CBJ 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 2.61. CAR outshot CBJ 32 to 24. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Staal had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. B. Bussi stopped 23 of 24.

Team Stats

CBJCAR

24Shots on goal32

2.61Expected goals4.39

52Shot attempts75

205v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play1/4

14Hits19

18Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways10

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.61 xGCAR 4.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ24 on goal, 1 scored

CAR30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	2	18:52	1:58
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	-1	0	18:10	1:51
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	17:32	1:45
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:21	2:19
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:30	1:10
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	14:49	0:52
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	14:03	0:14
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:18	0:14
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:08	0:21
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:44	1:01
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:26	1:01
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	9:09	1:01
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	26:50	0:55
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	-2	0	24:08	1:48
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:55	1:15
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:25	1:57
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	14:22	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	31	28	3	.903	57:23	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	2	2	2	3	2	+1	0	18:15	2:38
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	17:42	2:41
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	15:47	1:58
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	13:20	3:31
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	2	13:04	0:01
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:10	2:26
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:20	4:15
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16:19	3:47
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:28	3:38
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	12:16	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	11:53	0:01
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	25:04	0:11
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	0	1	6	+1	0	22:20	0:14
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	21:01	3:31
J. Nystrom	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	11:38	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	17:53	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:07	2:48

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:13A. Fantilli16:04D. Voronkov14:43

Line 2S. Monahan12:35C. Sillinger11:50K. Johnson11:54

Line 3M. Wood10:56I. Lundestrom10:50C. Coyle10:59

Line 4E. Chinakhov9:25B. Gaunce8:59L. Belluz8:08

Pair 1Z. Werenski19:21I. Provorov19:29

Pair 2D. Severson16:25D. Mateychuk15:41

Pair 3B. Smith11:35D. Fabbro12:08

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:49A. Svechnikov14:44S. Jarvis13:46

Line 2J. Blake13:31N. Ehlers11:57L. Stankoven10:36

Line 3J. Staal11:07J. Martinook11:21W. Carrier11:00

Line 4T. Hall9:49E. Robinson8:24M. Jankowski10:42

Pair 1K. Miller21:36S. Walker19:14

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere16:15J. Chatfield16:01

Pair 3A. Nikishin11:00J. Nystrom10:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.7, CAR 3.6	CBJ 1, CAR 4
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 24.9, CAR 35.3	CBJ 24, CAR 32
Win chance	CAR 64%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	3	0.93	1	34%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.9	2	0.82	2	30%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	4	0.79	0	27%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.7	5	0.74	0	15%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.7	1	1.01	0	35%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	2	0.74	0	30%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	2	0.76	1	28%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.4	1	0.66	0	25%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.4	0	0.34	1	11%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	1	0.52	0	20%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	2.0	1	0.79	1	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	1	0.69	1	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	1	0.55	1	21%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	3	0.56	1	23%	1
CBJ M. Wood	1.8	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	2	0.44	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.8	0	0.36	0	9%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.7	2	0.46	1	11%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	5	0.43	1	17%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	1	0.43	0	16%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	3	0.34	1	15%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	3	0.28	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.52	0	18%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.26	0	9%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.35	0	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	2	0.40	1	15%	1
CAR J. Nystrom	1.2	0	0.17	1	4%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	0	0.21	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	3	0.30	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	0.9	1	0.30	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.8	2	0.28	0	8%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.8	1	0.24	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.7	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.