Game Recap: CBJ 4, CHI 2, January 30, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ4

FinalFri, Jan 30, 2026Every game that night

CHI2

CBJ beat CHI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 2.11. C. Coyle scored three for CBJ. C. Coyle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. E. Merzlikins stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	2	1	4
CHI	1	1	0	2

1st 19:13CBJC. CoylePP0.48 xG
1st 19:57CHIC. Bedard0.20 xG
2nd 1:23CBJC. Coyle0.08 xG
2nd 6:47CBJM. Olivier0.12 xG
2nd 10:49CHIF. Nazar0.14 xG
3rd 18:57CBJC. CoyleEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

CBJCHI

26Shots on goal24

3.81Expected goals2.11

58Shot attempts53

225v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/2

16Hits13

13Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways16

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.81 xGCHI 2.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ26 on goal, 4 scored

CHI24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	3	1	4	6	1	1	+3	0	19:37	3:26
M. Olivier	RW	1	1	2	2	3	0	+3	0	15:29	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:05	3:28
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+3	0	14:29	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	19:47	3:34
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	19:33	3:22
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:56	0:02
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	14:53	0:59
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:00	0:38
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	11:47	1:12
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:44	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	8:03	0:29
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	+2	0	27:38	3:23
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	25:15	1:06
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:42	1:11
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:09	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:15	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	22:54	3:01
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	22:20	3:03
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	22:16	3:04
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:27	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:06	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:27	3:04
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:18	0:57
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:43	0:56
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	10:47	0:56
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:15	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:48	0:59
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6:44	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:55	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	22:16	2:55
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:16	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	19:57	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	0	0	16:45	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	16:31	1:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	25	22	3	.880	59:41	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment16:13A. Fantilli16:10K. Marchenko14:37

Line 2M. Olivier14:50C. Sillinger13:58C. Coyle14:26

Line 3S. Monahan12:26K. Johnson10:35B. Jenner10:10

Line 4M. Wood9:44I. Lundestrom12:33D. Voronkov7:34

Pair 1Z. Werenski23:00D. Severson22:58

Pair 2I. Provorov18:23D. Mateychuk15:15

Pair 3E. Gudbranson15:05J. Christiansen7:38

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi18:58C. Bedard19:34F. Nazar18:53

Line 2J. Dickinson13:40I. Mikheyev14:36R. Donato13:21

Line 3A. Burakovsky9:51R. Greene11:20T. Teravainen10:22

Line 4L. Slaggert8:34O. Moore7:49S. Lafferty6:44

Pair 1W. Kaiser19:04S. Rinzel19:00

Pair 2C. Murphy17:38M. Grzelcyk15:07

Pair 3A. Vlasic16:33L. Crevier14:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.6, CHI 3.0	CBJ 4, CHI 2
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	CBJ 30.6, CHI 26.9	CBJ 26, CHI 24
Win chance	CBJ 59%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	3	1.06	2	25%	0
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	1	0.98	2	30%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.8	0	0.75	0	29%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	1	0.82	1	30%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.3	1	0.73	2	30%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	2	0.59	0	25%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.1	4	0.59	1	20%	1
CBJ M. Marchment	2.1	3	0.70	0	27%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	1	0.50	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	6	0.66	4	22%	3
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	2	0.40	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.42	1	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	3	0.65	0	21%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	1	0.55	0	19%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	0	0.49	0	12%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.5	2	0.57	0	18%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	2	0.26	0	8%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	1	0.46	0	20%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.5	0	0.28	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.4	1	0.41	0	19%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	0	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.38	2	16%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	2	0.61	0	21%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.3	1	0.44	0	13%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.2	3	0.28	0	5%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	1	0.23	0	8%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	3	0.26	1	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	0	0.37	0	11%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	2	0.29	0	3%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.