Game Recap: CBJ 3, DET 4 (OT), November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ3

Final/OTSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

DET4

DET beat CBJ 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.95 expected goals to 3.62. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Monahan had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Talbot stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	1	1	1	0	3
DET	0	1	2	1	4

1st 13:18CBJA. FantilliPP0.15 xG
2nd 0:36DETL. Raymond0.14 xG
2nd 0:54CBJM. Wood0.24 xG
3rd 8:38CBJZ. Werenski0.22 xG
3rd 10:23DETB. Chiarot0.12 xG
3rd 13:25DETM. Seider0.03 xG
OT 1:50DETA. DeBrincat0.07 xG

Team Stats

CBJDET

35Shots on goal33

3.62Expected goals2.95

75Shot attempts64

225v5 shots on goal30

1/3Power play0/2

16Hits12

16Blocked shots22

8Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways12

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.62 xGDET 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ34 on goal, 3 scored

DET33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	20:43	2:56
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	19:31	3:23
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:43	1:02
M. Wood	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:07	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	20:41	3:25
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	16:16	3:20
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:32	0:55
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	14:30	0:58
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:54	0:02
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	10:23	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:11	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:41	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	7	1	1	-1	0	28:05	3:23
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	28:09	1:13
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	20:39	0:13
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	18:08	1:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	0	6	-2	0	14:08	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	10:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	33	29	4	.879	61:50	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	2	17:18	2:49
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	21:42	2:51
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:33	3:05
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	5	2	1	+2	0	16:38	1:11
N. Danielson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	8:43	1:09
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+2	0	23:35	3:28
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	16:33	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:14	0:32
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:57	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	0	11:54	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:30	0:55
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:42	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	1	1	2	2	2	3	+3	2	25:14	0:00
M. Seider	D	1	1	2	3	1	2	+3	0	23:26	1:12
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	20:39	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:20	2:48
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	17:20	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	35	32	3	.914	61:50	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko14:54A. Fantilli14:21D. Voronkov12:56

Line 2M. Wood13:51S. Monahan13:19K. Johnson12:05

Line 3C. Coyle11:43C. Sillinger12:10M. Olivier11:05

Line 4B. Gaunce8:58E. Chinakhov8:25I. Lundestrom8:44

Pair 1Z. Werenski20:17I. Provorov20:36

Pair 2D. Severson16:25D. Mateychuk16:58

Pair 3D. Fabbro11:14J. Christiansen10:09

DET

Line 1D. Larkin15:17E. Finnie15:22L. Raymond14:06

Line 2J. Compher14:01A. DeBrincat14:19P. Kane13:51

Line 3A. Copp10:04M. Kasper11:25J. Riemsdyk8:35

Line 4M. Appleton10:39J. Berggren7:42N. Danielson7:34

Pair 1B. Chiarot20:04M. Seider16:38

Pair 2T. Hamonic15:54A. Johansson17:13

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker12:15A. Sandin-Pellikka13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCam Talbot CBJ First game back in Detroit, his team until Apr 202632 saves on 35, the win
HometownZach Werenski CBJ Plays near home (born in Grosse Pointe)1 G, 1 A, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, DET 3.5	CBJ 3, DET 4
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.2, DET 32.1	CBJ 35, DET 33
Win chance	DET 57%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	2	0.92	1	34%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	7	0.93	2	19%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.2	4	1.05	0	37%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	2	0.85	0	31%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	2	0.82	2	26%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	3	0.81	1	32%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.5	4	0.96	1	29%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	3	0.52	2	8%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	0	0.67	0	27%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	6	0.75	1	23%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	1	0.33	1	16%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	2	0.45	1	16%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	2	0.38	0	18%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.6	0	0.31	1	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	2	0.42	1	9%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.5	5	0.43	1	20%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	3	0.52	0	19%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	1	0.49	0	18%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	1	0.39	0	16%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.3	1	0.38	0	10%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.3	1	0.43	0	17%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	1	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	2	0.22	2	7%	1
DET M. Appleton	1.3	1	0.32	0	12%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.2	1	0.37	0	16%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.1	1	0.16	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	1	0.36	1	8%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	0	0.35	1	10%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.0	0	0.18	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	2	0.24	0	5%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	2	0.16	0	5%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.6	0	0.18	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	4	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.