Game Recap: CBJ 6, FLA 7 (OT), December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ6

Final/OTSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

FLA7

FLA beat CBJ 7-6 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.72 expected goals to 3.05. FLA outshot CBJ 40 to 31. B. Marchand led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Marchand had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	1	4	1	0	6
FLA	1	3	2	1	7

1st 7:40CBJD. SeversonPP0.09 xG
1st 9:47FLAE. Rodrigues0.10 xG
2nd 5:26CBJD. Voronkov0.06 xG
2nd 5:57CBJM. Wood0.15 xG
2nd 10:24CBJK. Marchenko0.09 xG
2nd 11:15FLAC. Verhaeghe0.08 xG
2nd 13:11FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.16 xG
2nd 16:12FLAS. JonesPP0.07 xG
2nd 18:26CBJC. Sillinger0.15 xG
3rd 2:27CBJI. Lundestrom0.17 xG
3rd 4:21FLAB. Marchand0.22 xG
3rd 14:18FLAA. Lundell0.16 xG
OT 4:56FLAS. Bennett0.25 xG

Team Stats

CBJFLA

31Shots on goal40

3.05Expected goals3.72

45Shot attempts71

225v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play2/4

15Hits30

20Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways12

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.05 xGFLA 3.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ30 on goal, 6 scored

FLA40 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	1	1	2	5	2	0	-1	0	16:34	2:47
D. Voronkov	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	16:18	3:15
I. Lundestrom	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	14:08	0:00
M. Wood	LW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	22:18	4:51
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	-1	0	20:42	3:27
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	20:16	4:42
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:44	4:52
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:35	2:28
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	11:57	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:22	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:23	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	2	2	1	2	3	+1	2	30:09	2:42
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	2	29:01	5:16
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	0	19:23	0:39
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	18:10	2:51
B. Smith	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	11:09	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	14:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	40	33	7	.825	64:31	OT loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Bennett	C	1	3	4	3	3	0	+2	0	23:46	6:42
B. Marchand	LW	1	3	4	10	2	2	+2	0	23:16	6:45
C. Verhaeghe	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	0	20:36	6:43
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	23:42	6:48
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	4	19:34	1:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:03	0:56
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-2	0	16:38	0:57
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-2	0	13:36	0:51
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	13:53	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:31	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	5:09	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:51	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	1	2	5	2	0	+3	0	28:01	6:48
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-2	0	24:32	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+2	0	22:19	0:02
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	2	19:54	0:53
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:04	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	31	25	6	.806	64:56	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli16:00K. Marchenko14:29D. Voronkov13:03

Line 2M. Wood11:38I. Lundestrom12:21C. Coyle12:01

Line 3K. Johnson10:10C. Sillinger11:17S. Monahan11:05

Line 4B. Gaunce10:54E. Chinakhov8:22L. Belluz7:23

Pair 1Z. Werenski20:53I. Provorov21:20

Pair 2D. Severson15:19D. Mateychuk13:24

Pair 3B. Smith9:31D. Fabbro12:35

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:49S. Bennett14:19B. Marchand13:56

Line 2E. Luostarinen13:43A. Lundell14:09S. Reinhart12:43

Line 3E. Rodrigues14:11M. Samoskevich12:45A. Greer13:20

Line 4L. Kunin4:48J. Studnicka4:51J. Boqvist6:31

Pair 1G. Forsling19:00A. Ekblad16:01

Pair 2S. Jones15:52N. Mikkola18:12

Pair 3D. Sebrango11:29U. Balinskis12:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, FLA 3.4	CBJ 6, FLA 7
Total goals	6.2	13
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.2, FLA 32.2	CBJ 31, FLA 40
Win chance	FLA 60%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	4	0.89	1	17%	0
FLA S. Bennett	3.0	3	0.77	4	31%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	3.0	1	1.05	1	42%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.9	10	1.00	4	35%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.8	3	0.87	3	31%	2
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	2	0.71	1	30%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	4	0.73	1	28%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	5	0.76	1	23%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	4	0.57	1	21%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.3	2	0.48	1	18%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	5	0.56	2	14%	1
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	1	0.35	2	16%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.9	0	0.44	1	12%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	1	0.66	0	21%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.8	1	0.53	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	3	0.55	2	23%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.8	1	0.41	2	8%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	5	0.41	2	14%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.7	1	0.56	1	18%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.7	0	0.37	0	16%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	2	0.43	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.48	1	17%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	2	0.25	0	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.3	1	0.40	0	17%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	1.3	0	0.16	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.37	1	8%	1
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.1	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.34	1	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	0	0.15	0	9%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.8	0	0.25	0	9%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.8	1	0.16	1	3%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	2	0.18	2	8%	1
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	0	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.