Game Recap: CBJ 1, FLA 2 (OT), March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ1

Final/OTThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

FLA2

FLA beat CBJ 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.80 expected goals to 3.39. CBJ outshot FLA 31 to 21. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	0	1	0	0	1
FLA	0	0	1	1	2

2nd 13:01CBJA. Fantilli0.09 xG
3rd 1:28FLAS. BennettPP0.10 xG
OT 2:20FLAS. ReinhartPP0.08 xG

Team Stats

CBJFLA

31Shots on goal21

3.39Expected goals2.80

59Shot attempts57

285v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play2/2

13Hits23

10Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways23

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.39 xGFLA 2.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ31 on goal, 1 scored

FLA21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	4	3	0	+1	0	20:19	3:21
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	19:31	3:20
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	18:49	3:18
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:54	3:19
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:21	0:40
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:05	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:45	0:41
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:07	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:48	0:40
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:41	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:20	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	28:31	3:20
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:34	0:42
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:55	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:06	0:39
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	0	17:28	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	21	19	2	.905	62:20	OT loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	17:52	3:00
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:10	2:39
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:08	3:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:19	1:28
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	18:44	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:29	0:21
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:04	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:08	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:59	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:36	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:04	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:49	0:24
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:52	2:36
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:09	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:07	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	20:44	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	6	3	-1	0	18:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	31	30	1	.968	62:20	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment16:58M. Olivier15:05C. Coyle13:54

Line 2A. Fantilli15:23K. Marchenko13:47C. Sillinger13:41

Line 3S. Monahan13:01C. Garland14:41K. Johnson13:08

Line 4B. Jenner13:21D. Voronkov10:18I. Lundestrom10:16

Pair 1Z. Werenski23:43D. Fabbro20:18

Pair 2I. Provorov19:12D. Mateychuk17:08

Pair 3D. Severson16:46J. Christiansen12:00

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart14:52E. Rodrigues17:08E. Luostarinen15:08

Line 2T. Nosek14:00C. Reinhardt14:59A. Greer16:21

Line 3S. Bennett12:43M. Tkachuk12:20M. Samoskevich13:51

Line 4V. Hinostroza10:49L. Kunin10:40J. Boqvist10:27

Pair 1D. Kulikov19:36D. Sebrango20:44

Pair 2A. Ekblad17:45G. Forsling18:00

Pair 3N. Mikkola16:52M. Benning16:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, FLA 3.3	CBJ 1, FLA 2
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.0, FLA 30.0	CBJ 31, FLA 21
Win chance	FLA 54%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	5	1.01	0	19%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	2	0.84	1	32%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	2	1.11	1	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	3	1.03	2	40%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	2	0.80	0	29%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	2	0.71	1	27%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	1	0.52	0	19%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	1	0.35	1	14%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.8	4	0.66	1	25%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	1	0.66	0	20%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	1	0.39	0	12%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	2	0.57	0	13%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.6	0	0.44	0	19%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	2	0.58	0	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	2	0.39	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	2	0.43	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.4	1	0.34	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	1	0.45	0	9%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	2	0.43	0	15%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.41	0	13%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	1	0.35	0	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	1	0.24	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	3	0.40	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	3	0.15	0	9%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.8	2	0.12	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	1	0.09	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.