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Game Recap
CBJ3
LAK1
CBJ beat LAK 3-1, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.42. M. Marchment led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Greaves stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:07CBJM. MarchmentPP0.09 xG
- 1st 19:36CBJM. MarchmentPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 18:41LAKA. Kuzmenko0.01 xG
- 3rd 14:16CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.08 xG
Team Stats
CBJLAK
30Shots on goal24
2.68Expected goals2.42
57Shot attempts55
155v5 shots on goal21
3/7Power play0/5
15Hits19
12Blocked shots10
12Penalty minutes14
14Giveaways15
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.68 xGLAK 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marchment | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 3:08 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:58 | 3:16 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 6:00 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 5:06 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 4:28 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 2:14 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 4:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:15 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:40 | 0:52 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:21 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:26 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:06 | 2:15 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:35 | 5:39 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 27:12 | 3:40 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:46 | 0:40 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:16 | 5:32 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 5:30 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:05 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 5:43 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:26 | 5:26 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:07 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:10 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 2:05 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:07 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11:14 | 3:17 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:59 | 5:50 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:10 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:26 | 1:59 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:09 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 57:15 | Loss |
| P. Copley | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1C. Coyle14:00B. Jenner14:13K. Johnson9:50
Line 2K. Marchenko11:15A. Fantilli11:36M. Marchment11:45
Line 3M. Wood9:48D. Voronkov7:40S. Monahan6:58
Line 4C. Sillinger9:18L. Belluz6:04I. Lundestrom6:44
Pair 1I. Provorov16:22D. Fabbro15:11
Pair 2D. Severson15:27D. Mateychuk13:59
Pair 3B. Smith9:35J. Christiansen9:50
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar12:28A. Kempe12:36T. Moore10:18
Line 2Q. Byfield13:20A. Laferriere11:46K. Fiala13:41
Line 3A. Turcotte10:58W. Foegele9:27A. Kuzmenko8:59
Pair 1D. Doughty15:09M. Anderson13:37
Pair 2B. Clarke14:06J. Edmundson12:25
Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:11C. Ceci10:33
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.7, LAK 3.2 | CBJ 3, LAK 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.3, LAK 30.4 | CBJ 30, LAK 24 |
| Win chance | LAK 59% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.1 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 1.9 | 4 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.6 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.4 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Smith | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.