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Game Recap
CBJ2
SEA1
CBJ beat SEA 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.25 expected goals to 2.18. CBJ outshot SEA 34 to 23. B. Meyers had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. J. Greaves stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 16:43SEAR. Winterton0.14 xG
- 2nd 18:22CBJA. FantilliPP0.26 xG
Team Stats
CBJSEA
34Shots on goal23
3.25Expected goals2.18
64Shot attempts62
245v5 shots on goal19
1/4Power play0/2
15Hits9
21Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways13
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 3.25 xGSEA 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 6:07 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 6:07 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:11 | 6:07 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 6:07 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:41 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:41 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:41 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31:13 | 6:07 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:10 | 0:41 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:41 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 65:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:07 | 2:43 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 3:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:54 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 2:46 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:08 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:52 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:03 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:32 | 2:31 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:26 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:08 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 2:49 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:10 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:33 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Murray | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 64:54 | OT loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1A. Fantilli15:32K. Marchenko13:35D. Voronkov12:07
Line 2C. Coyle13:19C. Sillinger13:44M. Olivier12:01
Line 3M. Wood13:07I. Lundestrom11:21L. Belluz11:40
Line 4S. Monahan12:39E. Chinakhov10:41B. Jenner7:21
Pair 1Z. Werenski21:24I. Provorov23:15
Pair 2D. Severson14:13D. Mateychuk16:24
Pair 3D. Fabbro15:53J. Christiansen7:14
SEA
Line 1J. Schwartz16:01M. Beniers16:02K. Kakko13:19
Line 2J. Eberle14:04M. Marchment15:21C. Stephenson13:03
Line 3B. Meyers11:19T. Kartye10:18R. Winterton10:05
Line 4S. Wright9:56E. Tolvanen9:07B. Catton8:14
Pair 1A. Larsson17:44V. Dunn15:56
Pair 2B. Montour17:38R. Lindgren15:32
Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:09R. Evans16:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.0, SEA 3.5 | CBJ 2, SEA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.7, SEA 30.2 | CBJ 34, SEA 23 |
| Win chance | SEA 57% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.6 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.9 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.8 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.2 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.7 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.