Game Recap: CBJ 5, STL 3, January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ5

FinalSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

STL3

CBJ beat STL 5-3, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.80. STL outshot CBJ 33 to 23. K. Johnson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kyrou had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Greaves stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	2	2	1	5
STL	1	2	0	3

1st 7:11STLJ. Snuggerud0.26 xG
1st 7:48CBJI. Lundestrom0.12 xG
1st 12:54CBJD. Mateychuk0.03 xG
2nd 3:15STLJ. BerggrenPP0.15 xG
2nd 8:30CBJK. JohnsonPP0.11 xG
2nd 13:35STLT. Tucker0.01 xG
2nd 16:01CBJD. Severson0.07 xG
3rd 19:30CBJM. MarchmentEN0.65 xG

Team Stats

CBJSTL

23Shots on goal33

2.46Expected goals2.80

51Shot attempts56

195v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play1/4

20Hits21

11Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways17

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.46 xGSTL 2.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ23 on goal, 5 scored

STL31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	11:00	0:52
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	+2	2	18:48	1:32
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	17:04	1:32
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	2	16:46	1:32
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:16	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	11:31	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	11:31	0:52
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:49	0:52
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:52	1:32
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	16:49	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	15:34	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	23:18	0:52
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	23:01	0:52
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	22:58	1:32
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:04	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:46	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	33	30	3	.909	59:51	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	0	2	2	1	5	1	-1	0	17:34	3:27
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	-1	0	17:06	3:25
J. Berggren	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	13:46	3:26
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:05	3:26
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:20	4:18
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-3	0	18:20	4:19
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	6	2	0	-3	2	17:42	4:18
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	2	12:36	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:40	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	11:33	0:00
T. Tucker	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	14:16	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	22:33	3:18
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:06	4:17
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:58	4:26
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	19:30	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	22	18	4	.818	59:25	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko14:57A. Fantilli16:39M. Marchment14:39

Line 2M. Olivier14:51C. Sillinger14:35C. Coyle13:00

Line 3D. Voronkov10:39K. Johnson10:08S. Monahan8:08

Line 4B. Jenner10:18M. Wood10:18I. Lundestrom8:59

Pair 1D. Severson18:45Z. Werenski18:34

Pair 2I. Provorov18:04D. Mateychuk16:29

Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:09E. Zamula14:28

STL

Line 1B. Schenn13:27J. Snuggerud13:03D. Dvorsky11:43

Line 2P. Buchnevich12:25J. Kyrou12:57O. Sundqvist13:05

Line 3N. Walker11:33A. Toropchenko11:16R. Fabbri11:40

Line 4N. Bjugstad12:36P. Suter13:13J. Berggren10:20

Pair 1C. Parayko17:58P. Broberg17:18

Pair 2C. Fowler17:02L. Mailloux15:53

Pair 3J. Faulk16:28T. Tucker13:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, STL 3.4	CBJ 5, STL 3
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.4, STL 27.9	CBJ 23, STL 33
Win chance	STL 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	4	0.94	1	19%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	6	0.81	0	32%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	0	0.66	1	26%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	2	0.72	1	27%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.4	2	0.56	2	21%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	4	0.85	0	28%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.0	2	0.56	0	14%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	1	0.48	1	21%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	1	0.63	1	25%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.8	1	0.64	2	24%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	2	0.61	0	21%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	0	0.35	1	7%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	0	0.47	1	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	0	0.39	0	12%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.6	2	0.31	0	16%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.6	2	0.41	1	20%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	2	0.45	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	2	0.43	1	9%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	1	0.36	0	12%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	0	0.53	1	18%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.4	2	0.47	2	21%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	4	0.46	2	17%	1
STL R. Fabbri	1.3	1	0.38	0	18%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	2	0.35	0	15%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	1	0.24	1	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	2	0.47	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.2	0	0.33	1	16%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	0	0.26	0	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	3	0.25	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	1	0.21	1	7%	1
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	1	0.36	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.30	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	2	0.31	1	8%	1
STL L. Mailloux	0.9	2	0.18	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.18	1	8%	1
CBJ E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.