BOS beat CGY 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.17. P. Zacha led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Marchand had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Korpisalo stopped 34 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 2:04BOSH. Lindholm0.19 xG
- 1st 2:23CGYT. Barrie0.07 xG
- 2nd 8:25BOSP. Zacha0.17 xG
- 2nd 8:56BOSC. Koepke0.22 xG
- 3rd 0:58CGYY. SharangovichPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 9:55CGYN. Kadri0.10 xG
- OT 4:40BOSB. Marchand0.17 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.17 xGBOS 3.52 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:56 | 2:46 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 2:35 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 2:13 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:12 | 1:57 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:00 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:45 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 1:56 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:35 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:09 | 0:14 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:41 | 2:57 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:48 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 27:33 | 1:56 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:03 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:32 | 3:54 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:09 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:46 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:59 | 3:38 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:47 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:45 | 1:10 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:18 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:07 | 1:15 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 27:54 | 2:54 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:14 | 0:05 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 64:35 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.8, BOS 3.2 | CGY 3, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 29.6, BOS 28.4 | CGY 37, BOS 38 |
| Win chance | BOS 57% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.0 | 4 | 1.16 | 2 | 42% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.4 | 8 | 0.93 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.2 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.0 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.8 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.7 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS T. Johnson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.3 | 5 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 5 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.