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Game Recap
CGY2
BUF3
BUF beat CGY 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 2.93 expected goals to 2.09. U. Luukkonen stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 1:11BUFZ. Benson0.37 xG
- 1st 13:37BUFT. ThompsonPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 17:44CGYM. Coronato0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:42CGYM. Backlund0.04 xG
Team Stats
CGYBUF
26Shots on goal19
2.09Expected goals2.93
61Shot attempts50
215v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play1/2
20Hits18
15Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways13
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.09 xGBUF 2.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 1:05 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:24 | 3:59 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:54 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 2:06 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:53 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24:28 | 3:57 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 1:55 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 3:25 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:18 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:05 | 3:44 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:25 | 1:36 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:28 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 2:55 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:55 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:55 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:55 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 28:28 | 2:55 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 32:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 65:00 | Win |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.1, BUF 3.4 | CGY 2, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 30.0, BUF 31.1 | CGY 26, BUF 19 |
| Win chance | BUF 55% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 4 | 1.00 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.8 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.3 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.8 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.