Game Recap: CGY 1, CAR 2 (OT), March 2, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY1

Final/OTSun, Mar 2, 2025Every game that night

CAR2

CAR beat CGY 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.48 expected goals to 1.95. CAR outshot CGY 33 to 16. J. Slavin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Aho had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. P. Kochetkov stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CGY	0	0	1	0	1
CAR	0	1	0	1	2

2nd 19:25CARJ. Slavin0.23 xG
3rd 7:06CGYN. KadriPP0.11 xG
OT 3:16CARS. Aho0.18 xG

Team Stats

CGYCAR

16Shots on goal33

1.95Expected goals4.48

46Shot attempts79

115v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/6

25Hits12

23Blocked shots13

17Penalty minutes13

17Giveaways12

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 1.95 xGCAR 4.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY16 on goal, 1 scored

CAR33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	19:14	3:30
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	-1	2	17:38	4:12
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23:01	2:48
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	18:38	2:25
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	17:51	3:05
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:13	4:12
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:51	0:08
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:53	1:51
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	12:32	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:52	0:01
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	7:47	1:40
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	6:07	0:03
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	0	6	4	0	0	24:50	3:33
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	27:12	2:31
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:16	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	16:49	0:11
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:40	0:10
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	33	31	2	.939	63:16	OT loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	17:42	4:01
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	+2	2	24:04	9:02
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	21:40	9:15
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:11	8:37
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	18:14	6:13
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	2	18:13	3:21
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:06	0:06
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:20	2:58
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:57	2:58
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:23	1:04
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:37	0:00
J. Slavin	D	1	1	2	3	0	3	+2	0	20:56	0:23
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	21:36	8:52
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:29	0:02
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	18:45	3:08
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:29	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	16	15	1	.938	63:16	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.5, CAR 3.3	CGY 1, CAR 2
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	CGY 24.8, CAR 32.1	CGY 16, CAR 33
Win chance	CAR 63%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.0	5	0.74	1	26%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.7	6	1.04	1	36%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	1	0.83	0	28%	0
CAR M. Rantanen	2.7	5	1.08	0	36%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	3	0.84	0	31%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.3	2	0.44	0	9%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.50	0	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	3	0.47	0	19%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.0	0	0.47	1	10%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.0	0	0.39	0	15%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	1	0.70	1	22%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	1	0.38	2	18%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	3	0.51	0	19%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.6	0	0.22	0	5%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	0	0.46	0	17%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	1	0.45	0	16%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	3	0.44	0	16%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	3	0.40	2	7%	1
CAR J. Roslovic	1.5	1	0.46	0	18%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.5	2	0.34	0	8%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	0	0.41	0	16%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	1	0.49	0	9%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	1	0.41	0	16%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.4	2	0.37	0	7%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.4	2	0.33	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.25	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	0	0.28	0	8%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.1	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CAR T. Jost	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	0	0.13	0	8%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	0	0.17	0	5%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.12	0	7%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.