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Game Recap
CGY0
CAR1
CAR beat CGY 1-0 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.48 expected goals to 1.64. B. Bussi stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- OT 2:52CARN. Ehlers0.44 xG
Team Stats
CGYCAR
16Shots on goal17
1.64Expected goals3.48
39Shot attempts69
105v5 shots on goal15
0/1Power play0/1
21Hits18
25Blocked shots7
14Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways14
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.64 xGCAR 3.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:13 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:04 | 2:00 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:47 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:47 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:46 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:13 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:14 |
| D. Hunt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 24:29 | 1:31 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:29 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:10 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:50 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 1:10 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 1:10 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:50 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:10 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:50 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:41 | 0:50 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 23:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 1:10 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:50 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1.000 | 62:52 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund17:32C. Zary15:42B. Coleman16:30
Line 2Y. Sharangovich15:14N. Kadri14:28J. Farabee14:45
Line 3J. Huberdeau13:02M. Coronato13:17M. Frost13:28
Line 4D. Hunt10:02A. Klapka9:04J. Beecher8:24
Pair 1M. Weegar19:59Y. Kuznetsov20:34
Pair 2R. Andersson18:30K. Bahl18:56
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven16:17J. Blake14:52N. Ehlers14:18
Line 2S. Aho14:54S. Jarvis15:08A. Svechnikov14:16
Line 3J. Staal13:18W. Carrier13:38J. Martinook12:55
Line 4M. Jankowski9:14E. Robinson9:56T. Hall11:56
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere19:07J. Chatfield19:17
Pair 3A. Nikishin15:15J. Nystrom12:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.6, CAR 3.4 | CGY 0, CAR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 25.5, CAR 33.3 | CGY 16, CAR 17 |
| Win chance | CAR 63% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.9 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.8 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY D. Hunt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.