CGY beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.03 expected goals to 2.01. CGY outshot CHI 36 to 25. J. Pelletier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Coleman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. D. Wolf stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 1:14CGYJ. Pelletier0.05 xG
- 1st 2:38CHIL. Crevier0.02 xG
- 1st 11:47CGYJ. Pelletier0.34 xG
- 1st 14:08CGYM. Backlund0.07 xG
- 2nd 1:55CGYJ. Bean0.16 xG
- 2nd 11:29CHIC. BedardPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 13:38CGYY. SharangovichSH0.16 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.03 xGCHI 2.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pelletier | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:26 | 1:16 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 16:36 | 3:35 |
| R. Kerins | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:38 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:49 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:21 |
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:37 | 2:08 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 3:42 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:44 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:02 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:03 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10:02 | 1:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:33 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:41 | 3:33 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:27 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:09 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:50 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 2:50 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:16 | 2:10 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 2:10 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:40 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:50 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:16 | 2:50 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 1:40 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:30 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| L. Crevier | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:11 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:54 | 2:19 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:30 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:30 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.2, CHI 2.7 | CGY 5, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 31.3, CHI 26.4 | CGY 36, CHI 25 |
| Win chance | CGY 58% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.6 | 4 | 0.93 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.6 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 6 | 0.67 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 3 | 0.92 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.0 | 0 | 0.88 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.0 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.9 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.5 | 4 | 0.33 | 3 | 12% | 2 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.0 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.