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Game Recap
CGY2
CHI5
CHI beat CGY 5-2, with the chances close: 2.24 expected goals to 2.07. C. Bedard scored three for CHI. C. Bedard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Soderblom stopped 19 of 21.
Team Stats
CGYCHI
21Shots on goal23
2.07Expected goals2.24
49Shot attempts49
145v5 shots on goal17
1/4Power play0/4
43Hits13
15Blocked shots11
60Penalty minutes60
9Giveaways19
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.07 xGCHI 2.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:52 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:26 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:31 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | -1 | 14 | 14:48 | 2:15 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:33 | 3:35 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:36 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:02 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:48 | 3:33 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 12:44 | 2:43 |
| S. Morton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 10 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:13 | 3:05 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:09 | 3:05 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:07 | 0:02 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:01 | 5:22 |
| O. Moore | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:48 | 2:03 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:24 | 5:32 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:02 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 5:34 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:18 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:37 | 5:20 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 10 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 10 | 14:16 | 2:37 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 4:59 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 15:04 | 2:13 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund11:55C. Zary12:41B. Coleman12:08
Line 2J. Huberdeau12:19M. Coronato13:50N. Kadri14:03
Line 3R. Lomberg9:44S. Morton9:28A. Klapka10:58
Line 4J. Farabee7:19Y. Sharangovich9:35M. Frost8:40
Pair 1K. Bahl16:17R. Andersson15:39
Pair 2M. Weegar16:24Y. Kuznetsov14:37
CHI
Line 1A. Burakovsky13:09R. Greene14:01C. Bedard13:04
Line 2I. Mikheyev12:24C. Dach14:34R. Donato14:46
Line 3F. Nazar12:00O. Moore11:45T. Teravainen11:34
Line 4S. Lafferty8:52L. Slaggert6:31
Pair 1A. Vlasic17:25L. Crevier10:45
Pair 2W. Kaiser14:22A. Levshunov12:45
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk12:04S. Rinzel11:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.2, CHI 2.9 | CGY 2, CHI 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 32.0, CHI 25.9 | CGY 21, CHI 23 |
| Win chance | CGY 55% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.7 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 6 | 0.92 | 3 | 28% | 3 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.