CGY beat COL 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.76 expected goals to 3.05. R. Lomberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Lomberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. D. Vladar stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| COL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 16:31COLC. Makar0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:59COLL. O'Connor0.09 xG
- 3rd 10:57CGYR. Lomberg0.26 xG
- 3rd 11:29CGYA. Klapka0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.76 xGCOL 3.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Klapka | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:13 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:13 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:16 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:51 | 0:56 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:01 | 1:14 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:42 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:43 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:05 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:13 | 0:48 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:02 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:10 | 0:33 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 27:17 | 1:03 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:03 | 0:57 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:15 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 2:58 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:02 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:59 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:56 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 3:01 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 1:01 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:59 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 1:04 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:09 | 3:05 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:41 | 0:55 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 64:37 | OT loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.7, COL 3.6 | CGY 3, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 26.6, COL 30.9 | CGY 27, COL 30 |
| Win chance | COL 65% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 3 | 1.41 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 4 | 1.04 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.90 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.6 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 1.8 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 4 | 0.13 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 4 | 0.10 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.