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Game Recap
CGY2
FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night
COL5

COL beat CGY 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.49 expected goals to 2.02. C. Makar led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). M. Backlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. M. Blackwood stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY0112
COL1315
  1. 1st 14:13COLN. MacKinnon0.02 xG
  2. 2nd 2:37COLM. NecasPP0.19 xG
  3. 2nd 5:48COLA. Lehkonen0.22 xG
  4. 2nd 9:07COLB. Nelson0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 10:50CGYJ. Farabee0.02 xG
  6. 3rd 1:59CGYM. Pospisil0.22 xG
  7. 3rd 4:09COLA. Lehkonen0.05 xG

Team Stats

CGYCOL
27Shots on goal33
2.02Expected goals4.49
50Shot attempts57
255v5 shots on goal26
0/0Power play1/3
25Hits13
11Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes0
16Giveaways15
3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.02 xGCOL 4.49 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCOL goal, 14:13COL goal, 2:37COL goal, 5:48COL goal, 9:07CGY goal, 10:50CGY goal, 1:59COL goal, 4:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY26 on goal, 2 scored
COL32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BacklundC0115100019:030:00
J. FarabeeLW1013020017:340:00
M. PospisilC1012600014:360:00
R. StromeC0111000211:480:00
Y. SharangovichC000301-1017:520:00
M. CoronatoRW0002000015:330:00
A. SunievLW000101-1015:230:00
M. FrostC000120-1014:180:00
M. GridinRW0002100013:360:00
J. CastagnaC000101-1012:360:00
A. KlapkaRW000310-1011:290:00
M. TsyplakovRW000001-1010:110:00
Z. ParekhD011002+1018:040:00
S. NemecD000111-1023:060:00
K. BahlD000150-1023:020:00
Z. WhitecloudD000122-2020:320:00
Y. KuznetsovD000020+1418:440:00
J. MiddletonD000040-2016:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Sergeev33285.84860:00Loss
D. Wolf000–0:00

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. NecasC112210+4020:024:19
N. MacKinnonC112500+3019:064:20
A. LehkonenLW202410+3015:481:18
N. KadriC011200-2019:574:21
G. LandeskogLW011100+1015:231:23
B. NelsonC101300+1013:381:21
T. HughesRW000210-2017:004:20
J. SchwartzLW000201-2014:361:23
N. RoyC0000000013:320:00
P. KellyC0000200012:270:00
F. SvechkovC0000100012:120:00
G. BrindleyC0001120012:000:00
C. MakarD044300+4024:274:21
D. ToewsD022113+3020:481:24
S. MalinskiD000320-2018:400:00
B. KulakD000300-1017:320:00
B. BurnsD000101-1017:280:00
N. JuulsenD000033+1015:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood27252.92660:00Win
S. Wedgewood000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee14:58M. Coronato15:33M. Backlund15:55
Line 2A. Suniev15:23Y. Sharangovich15:23M. Frost14:18
Line 3A. Klapka11:29J. Castagna11:54M. Tsyplakov10:11
Line 4M. Pospisil12:07M. Gridin13:36R. Strome11:48
Pair 1K. Bahl19:57S. Nemec21:38
Pair 2Z. Parekh18:04Y. Kuznetsov18:44
Pair 3J. Middleton14:23Z. Whitecloud16:09

COL

Line 1M. Necas15:43N. MacKinnon14:46A. Lehkonen14:30
Line 2J. Schwartz13:13T. Hughes12:40N. Kadri15:36
Line 3G. Landeskog14:00B. Nelson12:17N. Roy13:32
Line 4F. Svechkov12:12P. Kelly12:27G. Brindley12:00
Pair 1D. Toews19:24C. Makar20:06
Pair 2B. Burns17:28S. Malinski18:40
Pair 3B. Kulak17:32N. Juulsen15:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 22 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-160+1265Over
COL C. Makar2.5-135+1103Over
CGY M. Coronato2.5+150-1822Under
COL M. Necas2.5-120-1082Under
COL N. Kadri2.5-114-1052Under
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-170+1304Over
CGY A. Suniev1.5+110-1601Under
COL B. Burns1.5-130+1051Under
COL B. Nelson1.5-160+1303Over
COL D. Toews1.5-115-1101Under
COL G. Landeskog1.5-135+1051Under
CGY J. Farabee1.5-170+1423Over
COL J. Schwartz1.5-115-1102Over
CGY M. Backlund1.5-145+1225Over
CGY M. Frost1.5+105-1151Under
CGY M. Gridin1.5-150+1252Over
COL P. Kelly1.5+130-1900Under
CGY R. Strome1.5-140–1Under
COL S. Malinski1.5-170+1353Over
CGY S. Nemec1.5+125-1851Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5+105-1453Over
CGY Z. Parekh1.5+110-1450Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamNazem Kadri COL Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 2.5, COL 4.0CGY 2, COL 5
Total goals6.57
Shots on goalCGY 25.4, COL 34.9CGY 27, COL 33
Win chanceCOL 72%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.151.47242%1
COL C. Makar2.830.99422%0
COL N. Kadri2.620.76126%0
COL M. Necas2.521.08231%1
COL T. Hughes2.320.54020%0
CGY M. Coronato2.220.53019%0
COL A. Lehkonen2.240.76231%2
COL B. Nelson2.130.68130%1
CGY M. Gridin2.120.55019%0
CGY M. Backlund2.150.40117%0
COL G. Landeskog2.010.63125%0
CGY J. Farabee1.930.51120%1
COL S. Malinski1.930.4107%0
COL J. Schwartz1.920.56022%0
COL B. Burns1.710.3307%0
COL D. Toews1.610.5129%0
CGY M. Frost1.610.43016%0
CGY A. Suniev1.610.29013%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.530.34017%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.520.29110%1
CGY R. Strome1.510.39114%0
COL P. Kelly1.400.40016%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.300.2617%0
CGY S. Nemec1.310.3108%0
COL N. Roy1.300.42015%0
COL B. Kulak1.230.2705%0
CGY A. Klapka1.230.25011%0
COL F. Svechkov1.100.36012%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov1.000.2108%0
COL G. Brindley1.010.2007%0
CGY J. Castagna1.010.20010%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov0.900.1604%0
CGY J. Middleton0.800.2004%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.810.1904%0
CGY K. Bahl0.710.2004%0
COL N. Juulsen0.600.1402%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.