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Game Recap
CGY1
DET2
DET beat CGY 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.40 expected goals to 1.81. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Talbot stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 6:33DETA. DeBrincatPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:12CGYC. ZaryPP0.06 xG
- OT 3:35DETL. RaymondPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
CGYDET
25Shots on goal27
1.81Expected goals2.40
59Shot attempts54
165v5 shots on goal20
1/4Power play2/4
11Hits17
14Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways21
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.81 xGDET 2.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 3:25 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:58 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 2:55 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:38 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:37 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:14 | 3:21 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:05 | 3:22 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:58 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:16 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24:17 | 2:51 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:47 | 3:31 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:27 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:16 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:40 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:45 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:31 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20:27 | 2:37 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:28 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:43 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:02 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:49 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:45 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 27:29 | 2:41 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:14 | 0:03 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:47 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.2, DET 3.1 | CGY 1, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 32.1, DET 27.8 | CGY 25, DET 27 |
| Win chance | CGY 52% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 5 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.6 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 2.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.8 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.