Game Recap: CGY 2, DET 5, March 16, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY2

FinalMon, Mar 16, 2026Every game that night

DET5

DET beat CGY 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 2.20. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Gibson stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	1	0	2
DET	0	4	1	5

1st 17:35CGYM. Frost0.06 xG
2nd 1:03DETP. Kane0.20 xG
2nd 5:06DETE. Finnie0.25 xG
2nd 6:37DETP. Kane0.05 xG
2nd 7:23CGYM. Coronato0.09 xG
2nd 11:45DETM. SeiderPP0.04 xG
3rd 18:55DETD. ShineEN0.85 xG

Team Stats

CGYDET

27Shots on goal25

2.20Expected goals4.02

51Shot attempts49

215v5 shots on goal13

0/2Power play1/4

20Hits26

13Blocked shots13

17Penalty minutes13

13Giveaways12

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.20 xGDET 4.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY26 on goal, 2 scored

DET24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	18:33	2:26
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:50	2:31
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	16:29	2:22
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	18:54	2:26
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:45	0:49
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	16:21	1:04
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:53	0:31
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	0	13:44	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:03	1:08
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	10:00	0:28
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	9:45	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	5	9:39	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	23:22	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	21:07	0:15
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	19:37	0:15
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	18:33	0:54
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:25	2:21
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	24	20	4	.833	57:55	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	3	3	6	0	0	+1	0	20:03	3:58
J. Compher	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	21:15	3:57
P. Kane	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:24	3:59
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:35	2:16
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	17:35	2:09
D. Shine	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	5	9:24	0:14
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	15:35	2:11
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:46	1:16
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:08	3:49
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	4	10:32	0:25
J. Leonard	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	9:10	0:50
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:23	0:23
M. Seider	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	2	20:35	4:05
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:30	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	22:04	2:29
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	20:06	0:22
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:35	0:27
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	27	25	2	.926	59:49	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Coronato13:15M. Gridin12:32M. Frost12:45

Line 2R. Strome12:53V. Olofsson11:14Y. Sharangovich10:08

Line 3M. Backlund10:49B. Coleman11:52J. Farabee10:45

Line 4R. Lomberg9:45M. Pospisil9:39C. Zary9:32

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud16:13K. Bahl16:08

Pair 2O. Määttä17:02H. Brzustewicz14:39

Pair 3J. Hanley13:07Z. Parekh13:32

DET

Line 1P. Kane14:04J. Compher14:53A. DeBrincat14:38

Line 2D. Perron12:26L. Raymond13:43E. Finnie12:18

Line 3J. Riemsdyk9:08M. Kasper10:56J. Leonard8:20

Line 4M. Appleton9:13D. Shine8:35S. Dries7:06

Pair 1B. Chiarot16:55J. Faulk16:46

Pair 2J. Bernard-Docker14:14A. Johansson14:50

Pair 3M. Seider13:29S. Edvinsson14:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, DET 3.2	CGY 2, DET 5
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CGY 27.0, DET 29.7	CGY 27, DET 25
Win chance	DET 58%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	6	1.02	3	36%	0
DET P. Kane	2.8	3	0.90	2	26%	2
DET L. Raymond	2.4	1	1.00	1	29%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	2	0.51	0	23%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	2	0.51	0	19%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	4	0.46	2	20%	1
DET M. Seider	2.2	2	0.64	1	10%	1
DET M. Kasper	2.0	1	0.43	0	18%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	1	0.44	0	22%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.8	3	0.40	1	16%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.7	1	0.42	0	21%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	4	0.43	0	19%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.43	0	9%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	3	0.42	1	16%	1
DET E. Finnie	1.5	2	0.36	1	15%	1
DET D. Perron	1.5	2	0.48	0	19%	0
DET J. Compher	1.5	2	0.47	2	18%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.4	0	0.38	0	16%	0
DET S. Dries	1.4	0	0.26	0	15%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.3	0	0.42	0	13%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.3	2	0.44	0	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.19	0	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	0	0.35	0	10%	0
DET J. Leonard	1.2	0	0.24	0	12%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	0	0.29	0	11%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	2	0.23	0	7%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.1	1	0.16	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.0	0	0.20	0	6%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	2	0.17	0	8%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.0	2	0.25	0	4%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.20	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.14	1	4%	0
DET D. Shine	0.7	1	0.16	1	8%	1
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.