Game Recap: CGY 4, EDM 1, October 13, 2024

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Game Recap

CGY4

FinalSun, Oct 13, 2024Every game that night

EDM1

CGY beat EDM 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.84 expected goals to 1.69. R. Andersson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Skinner had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Vladar stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	1	3	4
EDM	1	0	0	1

1st 1:16EDMJ. Skinner0.21 xG
2nd 7:30CGYR. Andersson0.19 xG
3rd 7:06CGYA. Mantha0.28 xG
3rd 9:27CGYJ. Kirkland0.11 xG
3rd 19:36CGYC. ZaryEN0.63 xG

Team Stats

CGYEDM

29Shots on goal26

4.84Expected goals1.69

62Shot attempts58

245v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play0/1

28Hits15

17Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes6

23Giveaways20

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 4.84 xGEDM 1.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY27 on goal, 4 scored

EDM26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:14	4:18
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:38	1:30
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	13:47	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	9:29	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	20:31	2:19
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	0	18:51	1:29
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	17:40	3:41
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	17:27	4:31
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:58	4:30
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	10:46	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	10:28	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	2	3	2	1	3	+4	0	24:58	1:42
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	23:51	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	20:41	3:48
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:09	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	15:30	0:00
T. Barrie	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:38	2:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	-2	0	20:27	1:22
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	6	2	0	-1	0	15:38	0:31
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	20:36	1:28
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	19:02	1:22
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:32	1:11
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:49	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:36	0:38
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:55	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:28	0:38
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:11	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	7:14	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-2	0	25:57	0:32
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	24:17	1:29
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	-1	0	21:39	0:49
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	16:57	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	25	3	.893	57:49	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, EDM 3.6	CGY 4, EDM 1
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	CGY 26.9, EDM 30.8	CGY 29, EDM 26
Win chance	EDM 62%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM Z. Hyman	3.7	2	1.00	0	42%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.7	5	1.83	1	42%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	4	0.85	0	28%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	3.2	1	0.82	0	26%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	1	1.40	0	42%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	1	1.00	0	17%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.6	6	0.69	1	27%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.5	4	0.55	0	24%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	1	0.49	0	18%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.2	1	0.98	0	26%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.55	0	13%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	3	0.50	1	11%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	0	0.72	0	19%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.9	1	0.74	0	29%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.8	2	0.41	1	13%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.7	3	0.32	0	8%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	2	0.51	1	19%	1
CGY R. Andersson	1.6	2	0.47	3	9%	1
CGY M. Coronato	1.5	0	0.25	0	10%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.5	1	0.29	0	8%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.5	2	0.47	1	18%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.4	0	0.30	0	10%	0
CGY T. Barrie	1.4	0	0.43	0	8%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.51	0	22%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	0	0.32	0	15%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.1	0	0.30	0	12%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
EDM T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	2	0.17	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.12	0	8%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.7	1	0.11	1	7%	1
CGY K. Bahl	0.7	3	0.15	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.