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Game Recap
CGY2
EDM3
EDM beat CGY 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.38. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Draisaitl had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. C. Pickard stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 4:32CGYY. Sharangovich0.31 xG
- 2nd 16:20EDMV. Arvidsson0.13 xG
- 3rd 7:55CGYB. Pachal0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:48EDML. Draisaitl0.06 xG
- OT 2:25EDML. Draisaitl0.11 xG
Team Stats
CGYEDM
28Shots on goal29
2.38Expected goals2.50
60Shot attempts63
235v5 shots on goal27
0/3Power play0/1
19Hits18
21Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways19
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.38 xGEDM 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 3:53 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:26 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:39 | 3:51 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 3:21 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:20 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:32 | 1:50 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 1:51 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:21 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:59 | 1:15 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:18 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:16 |
| B. Pachal | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:38 | 3:47 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 24:26 | 1:33 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:34 | 0:55 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 1:03 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:24 | 1:18 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:57 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:56 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:01 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:42 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:00 | 0:59 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:16 | 1:03 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:30 | 0:42 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:02 | 1:18 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:16 | 1:04 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 62:25 | Win |
| O. Rodrigue | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.0, EDM 3.7 | CGY 2, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.5, EDM 32.6 | CGY 28, EDM 29 |
| Win chance | EDM 62% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 6 | 0.86 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.1 | 8 | 1.47 | 3 | 46% | 2 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.3 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 3 | 0.12 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.