CGY beat EDM 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.32 expected goals to 3.60. EDM outshot CGY 35 to 22. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Draisaitl had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. D. Wolf stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| EDM | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 9:53EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.20 xG
- 1st 16:11EDMA. Mangiapane0.12 xG
- 2nd 8:32EDML. DraisaitlPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 12:40CGYM. Gridin0.04 xG
- 2nd 14:47CGYC. ZaryPP0.46 xG
- 3rd 0:40CGYB. Coleman0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.32 xGEDM 3.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:02 | 5:46 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 5:26 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Gridin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:39 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:41 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:31 | 1:35 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 5:04 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:18 | 5:31 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:25 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:20 | 1:38 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 12 | 26:01 | 5:33 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:42 | 0:04 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:56 | 4:00 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:21 | 5:23 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 | 5:09 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Tomasek | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:20 | 4:44 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:16 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:17 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Philp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| I. Howard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28:42 | 5:05 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:18 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:14 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Regula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
EDM
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.9, EDM 3.5 | CGY 4, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.1, EDM 32.0 | CGY 22, EDM 35 |
| Win chance | EDM 60% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.7 | 5 | 1.78 | 2 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.3 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 47% | 1 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 3.2 | 5 | 0.98 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.3 | 3 | 0.83 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM N. Philp | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM A. Regula | 1.1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.5 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.