Game Recap: CGY 1, EDM 5, December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY1

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

EDM5

EDM beat CGY 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.66 expected goals to 2.02. EDM outshot CGY 39 to 19. C. McDavid led the way with 5 points (0 G, 5 A). Z. Hyman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. C. Ingram stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	0	0	1
EDM	2	2	1	5

1st 6:48EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.47 xG
1st 15:58CGYM. Weegar0.04 xG
1st 19:43EDML. DraisaitlPP0.11 xG
2nd 1:59EDML. DraisaitlPP0.15 xG
2nd 11:56EDMZ. Hyman0.20 xG
3rd 5:38EDML. DraisaitlPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

CGYEDM

19Shots on goal39

2.02Expected goals5.66

52Shot attempts69

115v5 shots on goal25

0/4Power play3/6

27Hits14

13Blocked shots21

89Penalty minutes65

21Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.02 xGEDM 5.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY19 on goal, 1 scored

EDM38 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:24	0:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:06	4:37
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:57	4:29
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	16:20	3:17
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:12	2:24
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:29	4:34
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	0	14:54	2:30
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:30	2:28
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:58	2:35
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10	12:27	1:21
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	10	9:58	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12	9:54	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	22	9:05	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	4	24:00	3:54
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	5	22:43	0:01
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	10	20:56	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	12	18:31	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:12	3:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	39	34	5	.872	59:34	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	5	5	6	0	0	+1	2	20:37	5:10
L. Draisaitl	C	3	0	3	4	0	0	0	0	18:49	5:08
Z. Hyman	LW	1	2	3	6	0	0	+1	0	17:11	5:08
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	2	16:26	4:12
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	10	16:39	0:38
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	15:21	0:37
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:11	0:39
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12	13:01	0:02
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	10	12:16	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:02	0:07
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	9:51	0:07
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	8:37	0:07
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	2	0	4	0	0	23:38	5:08
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:07	0:07
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12	19:12	0:39
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	19:08	0:07
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	17:17	0:37
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12	15:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Coronato13:03J. Huberdeau12:39M. Frost10:30

Line 2M. Backlund13:54C. Zary11:33B. Coleman9:51

Line 3J. Farabee10:46Y. Sharangovich10:42N. Kadri11:06

Line 4R. Lomberg9:54A. Klapka11:06J. Beecher8:43

Pair 1R. Andersson16:59K. Bahl16:53

Pair 2M. Weegar7:38Y. Kuznetsov18:09

Pair 3J. Hanley15:35H. Brzustewicz14:04

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman11:38C. McDavid12:38R. Nugent-Hopkins10:30

Line 2A. Mangiapane12:16M. Savoie11:36A. Henrique10:51

Line 3L. Draisaitl12:27J. Roslovic12:33V. Podkolzin10:42

Line 4M. Janmark10:00M. Jones9:44T. Frederic8:30

Pair 1S. Stastney15:41T. Emberson15:50

Pair 2D. Nurse16:10A. Regula13:49

Pair 3M. Ekholm13:20E. Bouchard14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, EDM 3.1	CGY 1, EDM 5
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	CGY 28.4, EDM 29.3	CGY 19, EDM 39
Win chance	EDM 55%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	6	1.55	5	38%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	2	0.82	0	28%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	6	0.84	3	38%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	4	1.37	3	43%	3
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	2	0.93	2	16%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	1	0.53	0	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	1	0.52	0	21%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	4	0.87	1	26%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	4	0.49	1	18%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.1	3	0.60	0	23%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.0	2	0.46	1	10%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	0	0.37	0	9%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.0	1	0.48	0	11%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	2	0.54	0	24%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	1	0.41	0	18%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.44	0	9%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	3	0.48	0	16%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	1	0.70	0	22%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	0	0.45	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	2	0.42	0	17%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	1	0.30	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	3	0.32	0	16%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.1	0	0.11	0	3%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.21	0	12%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.0	3	0.18	0	8%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.15	0	7%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.9	0	0.26	0	7%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.25	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.