Game Recap: CGY 0, EDM 4, October 28, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY0

FinalWed, Oct 28, 2026Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat CGY 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 2.21. EDM outshot CGY 32 to 24. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Strome had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. T. Jarry stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
EDM	1	1	2	4

1st 7:46EDMM. Joseph0.15 xG
2nd 4:52EDMM. Ekholm0.02 xG
3rd 0:55EDMK. KapanenPP0.27 xG
3rd 1:16EDMA. Formenton0.24 xG

Team Stats

CGYEDM

24Shots on goal32

2.21Expected goals3.07

54Shot attempts60

245v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play1/2

19Hits28

9Blocked shots12

11Penalty minutes9

16Giveaways11

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.21 xGEDM 3.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY24 on goal, 0 scored

EDM32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Gridin	RW	1	0	0	0	0	22:31	1:31
M. Backlund	C	2	0	0	-1	0	18:32	0:00
R. Strome	C	4	0	0	0	0	18:30	0:30
M. Coronato	RW	3	0	0	-1	0	18:12	1:30
J. Farabee	LW	3	1	0	-1	2	16:48	1:28
M. Pospisil	C	3	5	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	2	7	1	-1	0	14:46	0:32
A. Suniev	LW	0	2	0	-1	0	13:21	0:29
M. Frost	C	1	0	0	-2	0	13:19	1:28
J. Castagna	C	0	2	0	0	2	13:18	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	1	0	-2	0	11:58	0:29
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0:52	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	1	-2	0	23:36	0:31
K. Bahl	D	0	1	3	-1	2	22:43	0:03
J. Middleton	D	1	0	1	-2	0	19:49	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	0	2	-1	0	19:38	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	1	0	0	0	0	17:17	1:29
Y. Kuznetsov	D	1	0	1	0	0	15:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	9	8	1	.889	20:00	Loss
D. Wolf	23	20	3	.870	40:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:50	1:23
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	2	2	2	0	2	+1	0	18:23	1:22
K. Kapanen	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	18:06	1:21
M. Joseph	RW	1	0	1	2	3	2	+2	0	13:12	0:06
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	13:00	0:08
A. Formenton	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:12	0:04
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:06	1:24
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	16:50	0:45
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	16:08	0:49
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	11:16	0:44
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:39	0:00
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:21	0:49
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	0	22:12	1:32
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	18:44	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:51	0:41
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	20:35	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	19:16	0:09
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	5	16:19	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1R. Strome17:07M. Gridin20:07M. Pospisil14:18

Line 2M. Backlund16:12J. Farabee15:20M. Coronato15:26

Line 3A. Klapka14:14J. Castagna12:35A. Suniev12:52

Line 4M. Frost11:51Y. Sharangovich10:06

Pair 1S. Nemec21:00K. Bahl19:57

Pair 2J. Middleton18:18Z. Whitecloud18:14

Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov14:27Z. Parekh15:44

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl16:25C. McDavid16:15V. Podkolzin14:59

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins16:06C. Dach15:38K. Kapanen15:17

Line 3M. Joseph12:11A. Formenton11:49J. Dickinson12:15

Line 4T. Frederic10:32I. Howard9:32O. Michaels10:09

Pair 1M. Ekholm16:50E. Bouchard19:39

Pair 2C. Murphy18:18R. Shea17:55

Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin18:34T. Emberson16:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	-115	-110	3	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.5	+112	-130	2	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-165	+140	4	Over
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	+135	-148	3	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.5	+140	-145	2	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	2.5	+118	-140	2	Under
EDM C. Dach	1.5	+105	-130	2	Over
CGY J. Farabee	1.5	-175	+135	3	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-130	+110	2	Over
CGY M. Backlund	1.5	-150	+122	2	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	+115	-140	3	Over
CGY M. Frost	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
CGY M. Gridin	1.5	-150	+120	1	Under
CGY R. Strome	1.5	+110	–	4	Over
CGY S. Nemec	1.5	+130	-190	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	+110	-114	1	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	+120	-135	1	Under

3 of 32 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+500	-600	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+750	-800	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
CGY J. Middleton	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+440	-475	1	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+1000	-1600	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+800	-1000	1	Over
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+725	-900	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under

3 of 27 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+180	-200	2	Over
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-145	+135	1	Over
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-174	+140	0	Under
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+270	-310	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+116	-150	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+255	-325	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+280	-340	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+158	-165	0	Under
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+195	-220	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under

4 of 27 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	-125	+110	2	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	+176	-190	1	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	-104	-105	0	Under
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+230	–	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+155	-215	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	-105	+105	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+285	-425	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+158	-180	1	Over
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+165	-200	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+105	-115	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-145	+125	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+196	-230	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+180	-215	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+350	–	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+172	-200	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	-150	+130	0	Under
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.5	+310	–	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under

3 of 16 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-105	-111	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+155	-185	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+325	-500	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+280	-550	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+325	-450	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+200	-210	1	Over
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CGY D. Cooley	27.5	-104	-120	8	Under
EDM T. Jarry	22.5	-120	-104	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
CGY J. Middleton	1.5	-130	-110	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, EDM 3.6	CGY 0, EDM 4
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	CGY 26.6, EDM 31.2	CGY 24, EDM 32
Win chance	EDM 62%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.6	3	1.76	2	41%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	2	1.56	0	45%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	4	1.18	1	19%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	3	0.64	0	22%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	2.3	2	0.68	0	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.2	2	0.88	2	27%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	2	0.48	0	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.1	3	0.65	0	25%	0
CGY M. Gridin	2.0	1	0.60	0	19%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.9	2	0.52	1	21%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.6	1	0.50	0	18%	0
EDM A. Formenton	1.6	1	0.35	1	16%	1
CGY A. Suniev	1.6	0	0.33	0	14%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	1	0.42	0	20%	0
EDM C. Dach	1.6	2	0.35	0	14%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	3	0.45	1	8%	1
CGY Z. Parekh	1.4	1	0.31	0	8%	0
CGY S. Nemec	1.4	0	0.36	0	10%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.4	4	0.44	0	14%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	3	0.31	0	10%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.2	0	0.22	0	12%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	2	0.29	0	12%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.2	3	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM R. Shea	1.1	0	0.46	0	8%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	2	0.20	0	8%	0
CGY J. Castagna	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
EDM O. Michaels	1.0	1	0.34	0	14%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
CGY B. Othmann	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.9	2	0.26	1	9%	1
CGY J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.21	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.20	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.8	0	0.24	0	5%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	1	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.