Game Recap: CGY 5, FLA 3, November 28, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CGY5

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

FLA3

CGY beat FLA 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.52 expected goals to 5.72. N. Kadri led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Kadri had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. D. Cooley stopped 38 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	2	2	1	5
FLA	2	0	1	3

1st 0:54FLAE. Rodrigues0.21 xG
1st 2:58FLAS. Bennett0.19 xG
1st 5:35CGYY. Kuznetsov0.03 xG
1st 10:41CGYM. Weegar0.08 xG
2nd 0:55CGYM. FrostPP0.19 xG
2nd 18:44CGYN. Kadri0.07 xG
3rd 11:54FLAB. Marchand0.10 xG
3rd 18:57CGYJ. FarabeeEN0.54 xG

Team Stats

CGYFLA

34Shots on goal41

3.52Expected goals5.72

62Shot attempts96

305v5 shots on goal31

1/2Power play0/2

20Hits30

28Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways10

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.52 xGFLA 5.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY34 on goal, 5 scored

FLA41 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	2	3	8	0	2	+2	0	18:59	2:00
J. Farabee	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:00	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:49	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	1	5	3	+2	0	19:24	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:35	0:00
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	-2	0	13:04	2:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+2	0	15:53	0:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:27	2:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	14:07	2:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	10:38	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	8:22	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	7:10	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	2	2	3	1	3	+1	2	22:59	2:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	1	0	1	2	2	4	0	0	22:36	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	0	1	5	2	4	0	2	20:53	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	21:45	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	41	38	3	.927	60:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	21:20	3:16
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	4	1	2	-2	0	21:58	3:17
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	20:50	3:17
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	0	19:19	0:43
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-2	0	19:04	3:19
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	4	2	1	+1	2	16:51	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:47	0:43
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	13:08	0:33
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	4	5	1	-1	0	16:10	0:44
J. Devine	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:38	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	7:18	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:08	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	26:19	3:22
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:35	0:08
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	2	21:16	0:38
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	20:37	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	12:30	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	33	29	4	.879	57:21	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund16:29C. Zary16:30B. Coleman16:17

Line 2N. Kadri15:22Y. Sharangovich14:40J. Farabee15:04

Line 3J. Huberdeau11:50M. Coronato12:02M. Frost11:04

Line 4R. Lomberg8:22J. Beecher8:41A. Klapka7:10

Pair 1M. Weegar18:57Y. Kuznetsov19:16

Pair 2R. Andersson18:29K. Bahl18:24

Pair 3J. Hanley13:49B. Pachal14:19

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett16:57A. Greer15:51C. Verhaeghe15:54

Line 2B. Marchand14:06A. Lundell15:41M. Samoskevich14:26

Line 3E. Rodrigues11:42J. Boqvist11:35S. Reinhart15:46

Line 4L. Kunin7:18J. Devine7:38N. Gregor7:08

Pair 1A. Ekblad19:16G. Forsling20:05

Pair 2S. Jones19:40N. Mikkola18:59

Pair 3J. Petry12:30U. Balinskis12:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.6, FLA 3.2	CGY 5, FLA 3
Total goals	5.8	8
Shots on goal	CGY 27.1, FLA 29.6	CGY 34, FLA 41
Win chance	FLA 59%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	2.9	8	0.75	3	27%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	2	0.93	2	38%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.6	6	0.65	1	27%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	4	0.77	1	29%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.87	1	31%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	2	0.52	0	21%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	4	0.73	1	22%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	2	0.54	1	20%	1
CGY R. Andersson	2.1	3	0.50	2	11%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	5	0.43	1	8%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	4	0.46	0	17%	0
CGY M. Backlund	1.9	1	0.43	1	16%	0
CGY B. Coleman	1.8	1	0.40	1	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	2	0.34	2	16%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.48	1	16%	1
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.46	0	10%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	2	0.47	0	9%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	1	0.37	0	9%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.6	0	0.65	0	21%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	4	0.32	1	14%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.4	1	0.34	1	15%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.3	4	0.42	0	19%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.3	4	0.38	1	17%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	2	0.21	1	4%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	2	0.22	0	5%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	0	0.16	0	8%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	0	0.15	0	9%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.13	0	7%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	2	0.20	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.