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Game Recap
CGY2
LAK1
CGY beat LAK 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 2.84. CGY outshot LAK 38 to 22. M. Weegar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Wolf stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 11:10LAKA. Kempe0.15 xG
- 2nd 6:41CGYB. ColemanSH0.22 xG
- OT 1:06CGYM. Frost0.21 xG
Team Stats
CGYLAK
38Shots on goal22
2.96Expected goals2.84
62Shot attempts57
285v5 shots on goal15
0/4Power play0/2
12Hits13
16Blocked shots15
9Penalty minutes13
23Giveaways17
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.96 xGLAK 2.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:47 | 3:29 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 4:05 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 4:12 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 3:38 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 4:16 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:05 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:37 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 3:43 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:11 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 3:18 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:07 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:01 | 0:07 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26:52 | 4:22 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:28 | 3:38 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:14 | 0:12 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| H. Brzustewicz | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:56 | 1:22 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:28 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:31 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:14 | 2:35 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 1:22 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:31 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:29 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 1:29 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:10 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:12 | 2:38 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 1:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 61:06 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri17:38J. Farabee16:32Y. Sharangovich15:31
Line 2J. Huberdeau15:45M. Coronato14:10M. Frost14:11
Line 3B. Coleman10:16C. Zary10:08M. Backlund6:38
Line 4J. Beecher9:16R. Lomberg7:02A. Klapka6:54
Pair 1M. Weegar20:07Y. Kuznetsov18:55
Pair 2K. Bahl18:06R. Andersson16:05
Pair 3J. Hanley10:49H. Brzustewicz11:57
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar14:27A. Kempe14:07A. Laferriere17:07
Line 2K. Fiala15:06Q. Byfield13:54J. Armia10:58
Line 3A. Turcotte14:16W. Foegele12:50T. Moore11:16
Line 4C. Perry10:11J. Malott7:03S. Helenius2:34
Pair 1D. Doughty18:57M. Anderson18:20
Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:33C. Ceci14:14
Pair 3J. Edmundson13:57B. Clarke14:10
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.5, LAK 3.0 | CGY 2, LAK 1 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.0, LAK 28.9 | CGY 38, LAK 22 |
| Win chance | LAK 58% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.1 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.0 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.0 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.0 | 5 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.6 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.