Game Recap: CGY 0, LAK 2, February 28, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY0

FinalSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

LAK2

LAK beat CGY 2-0, with the chances close: 3.39 expected goals to 3.02. LAK outshot CGY 37 to 29. A. Laferriere had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Forsberg stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
LAK	0	1	1	2

2nd 15:36LAKA. Laferriere0.26 xG
3rd 19:22LAKA. KempeEN0.41 xG

Team Stats

CGYLAK

29Shots on goal37

3.02Expected goals3.39

70Shot attempts68

295v5 shots on goal36

0/0Power play0/0

20Hits26

14Blocked shots20

10Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.02 xGLAK 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY29 on goal, 0 scored

LAK36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
J. Farabee	LW	1	1	0	-1	18:08	0:00
N. Kadri	C	5	1	0	-2	18:00	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	4	0	0	-1	17:32	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	1	2	0	0	17:23	0:00
M. Gridin	RW	4	0	2	-1	17:00	0:00
M. Backlund	C	2	0	1	0	16:56	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	1	0	0	16:11	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	2	-1	14:33	0:00
C. Zary	C	1	0	0	-1	13:55	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	3	7	2	-1	13:45	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	2	0	0	9:21	0:00
J. Beecher	C	3	0	1	0	9:03	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	0	3	-2	23:17	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	0	-1	22:56	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	3	1	0	22:15	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	1	1	0	0	21:47	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	1	0	15:28	0:00
J. Hanley	D	1	1	1	0	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	36	35	1	.972	58:33	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	20:16	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	7	3	1	+1	19:38	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	18:48	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	17:33	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	16:47	0:00
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	17:31	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:44	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:35	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	11:28	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:40	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:43	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	23:06	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	4	0	5	0	22:58	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	22:27	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	20:18	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:53	0:00
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	13:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	29	29	0	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri17:26J. Farabee18:08C. Zary13:28

Line 2M. Backlund16:03M. Coronato16:32Y. Sharangovich13:59

Line 3M. Frost15:44M. Gridin16:00B. Coleman16:30

Line 4M. Pospisil9:21J. Beecher9:03A. Klapka13:11

Pair 1M. Weegar22:17K. Bahl22:03

Pair 2Y. Kuznetsov21:47Z. Whitecloud22:15

Pair 3J. Hanley13:57Z. Parekh15:01

LAK

Line 1Q. Byfield19:23T. Moore17:55A. Laferriere18:45

Line 2A. Kopitar16:57A. Panarin16:59A. Kempe16:13

Line 3C. Perry13:44W. Foegele13:35A. Turcotte10:40

Line 4J. Malott9:43T. Ward10:10S. Helenius11:28

Pair 1C. Ceci21:39M. Anderson21:34

Pair 2J. Edmundson19:44B. Clarke22:58

Pair 3B. Dumoulin17:53J. Moverare13:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, LAK 3.0	CGY 0, LAK 2
Total goals	5.7	2
Shots on goal	CGY 27.5, LAK 28.4	CGY 29, LAK 37
Win chance	LAK 54%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.2	3	1.21	1	35%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	4	0.91	1	34%	1
CGY N. Kadri	2.7	5	0.73	0	25%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	7	0.51	1	21%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	2	0.56	0	19%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	4	0.52	0	20%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	0	0.44	0	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.1	4	0.54	0	11%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	1	0.46	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	2	0.62	1	22%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	1	0.49	0	23%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	3	0.45	1	20%	0
CGY M. Weegar	1.9	1	0.44	0	9%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.8	2	0.57	0	24%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	1	0.40	0	17%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	1	0.45	0	17%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.7	4	0.37	0	14%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	0	0.39	0	14%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.5	2	0.35	0	12%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.4	5	0.30	0	14%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.2	2	0.67	0	21%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	2	0.22	0	4%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	3	0.25	0	12%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.1	0	0.20	0	8%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	0	0.21	0	6%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	1	0.21	0	6%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	0.8	0	0.17	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.6	3	0.12	0	6%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.4	1	0.10	0	2%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.4	1	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.