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Game Recap
CGY1
MIN4
MIN beat CGY 4-1, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.60. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 2:43MIND. Yurov0.13 xG
- 1st 10:37MINV. Hinostroza0.13 xG
- 3rd 5:49CGYM. Frost0.16 xG
- 3rd 17:17MINM. BoldyPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:45MINK. KaprizovEN0.40 xG
Team Stats
CGYMIN
30Shots on goal24
2.60Expected goals2.89
64Shot attempts56
205v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play1/2
16Hits11
17Blocked shots15
9Penalty minutes11
18Giveaways13
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.60 xGMIN 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:49 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:17 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 3:11 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 3:08 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:13 |
| M. Gridin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:26 | 2:28 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:52 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:12 | 2:47 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:15 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 20:02 | 2:59 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| H. Brzustewicz | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 3:01 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:14 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:11 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:13 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:11 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:13 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18:17 | 0:10 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:09 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27:57 | 2:24 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 24:01 | 0:04 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:11 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund15:22M. Coronato15:00Y. Sharangovich14:45
Line 2M. Gridin13:58M. Frost13:08J. Huberdeau13:26
Line 3C. Zary13:23N. Kadri13:18M. Pospisil12:12
Line 4J. Kirkland10:01J. Farabee10:44A. Klapka9:17
Pair 1Z. Whitecloud22:16K. Bahl20:44
Pair 2M. Weegar16:41Y. Kuznetsov17:36
Pair 3J. Hanley12:20H. Brzustewicz13:14
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello17:14K. Kaprizov17:02R. Hartman18:03
Line 2Y. Trenin13:45D. Yurov13:58V. Tarasenko13:15
Line 3M. Johansson12:48M. Boldy12:39J. Ek12:30
Line 4M. Foligno6:49V. Hinostroza8:21N. Sturm7:06
Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:39J. Middleton16:33
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.9, MIN 3.4 | CGY 1, MIN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 29.2, MIN 30.3 | CGY 30, MIN 24 |
| Win chance | MIN 58% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.8 | 3 | 1.32 | 2 | 46% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.8 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.7 | 4 | 1.07 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 2.7 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CGY M. Gridin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY H. Brzustewicz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.