CGY beat MTL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.16 expected goals to 3.84. CGY outshot MTL 35 to 24. M. Coronato led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Y. Sharangovich had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. D. Wolf stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 4:20CGYC. Zary0.26 xG
- 2nd 16:23MTLB. GallagherPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 5:56MTLJ. ArmiaSH0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:14CGYM. Coronato0.15 xG
- OT 0:07CGYM. Coronato0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.16 xGMTL 3.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Coronato | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:05 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:07 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:53 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 1:07 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:53 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:53 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:55 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:57 | 1:07 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:15 | 0:53 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:07 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 2:12 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 2:10 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:54 | 2:11 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 3:38 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:18 | 3:39 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:40 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:38 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 2:12 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:06 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:06 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:06 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 26:23 | 3:37 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 21:29 | 2:19 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:06 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | OT loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.4, MTL 3.1 | CGY 3, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 32.3, MTL 27.7 | CGY 35, MTL 24 |
| Win chance | CGY 55% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.4 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.3 | 5 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.0 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.7 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY A. Mantha | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.