Game Recap: CGY 1, MTL 4, January 7, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY1

FinalWed, Jan 7, 2026Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat CGY 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 1.86. A. Texier led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Fowler stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	1	0	1
MTL	0	3	1	4

2nd 3:10MTLA. Texier0.05 xG
2nd 7:05MTLL. Hutson0.18 xG
2nd 8:12MTLO. Kapanen0.41 xG
2nd 17:39CGYJ. Farabee0.01 xG
3rd 3:56MTLC. Caufield0.08 xG

Team Stats

CGYMTL

29Shots on goal36

1.86Expected goals3.69

59Shot attempts62

245v5 shots on goal34

0/4Power play0/2

15Hits24

13Blocked shots19

2Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways11

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 1.86 xGMTL 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY28 on goal, 1 scored

MTL34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:57	3:58
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	20:51	3:06
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:32	3:56
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:30	3:52
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:21	3:07
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:04	3:53
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	13:38	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:23	2:59
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:54	3:04
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:47	0:00
W. Stromgren	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:04	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:36	0:17
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	2	22:40	3:41
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-3	0	22:13	3:20
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	19:56	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	18:13	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	15:03	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	36	32	4	.889	59:40	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Texier	LW	1	2	3	3	0	1	+3	0	13:57	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	14:43	3:03
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	2	18:22	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	17:54	2:45
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	16:11	3:03
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:52	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:08	2:47
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:17	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:00	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	13:24	0:16
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	11:16	0:00
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	10:38	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	1	0	5	+3	0	23:29	3:02
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+3	0	19:22	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	23:10	0:18
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	18:46	0:01
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	16:30	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	+1	2	16:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund14:08B. Coleman15:04M. Coronato14:08

Line 2N. Kadri15:16J. Huberdeau13:19A. Klapka13:26

Line 3Y. Sharangovich9:49C. Zary10:12J. Farabee12:39

Line 4R. Lomberg10:39M. Frost8:42W. Stromgren7:56

Pair 1K. Bahl18:34R. Andersson18:30

Pair 2M. Weegar16:12Y. Kuznetsov15:35

Pair 3J. Hanley14:08H. Brzustewicz14:33

MTL

Line 1P. Danault15:29Z. Bolduc13:52B. Gallagher13:00

Line 2J. Slafkovský12:47I. Demidov12:21O. Kapanen10:59

Line 3J. Veleno11:03O. Beck11:13S. Blais10:35

Line 4N. Suzuki11:55C. Caufield11:12A. Texier11:12

Pair 1L. Hutson19:35A. Carrier15:30

Pair 2J. Struble16:15A. Xhekaj15:46

Pair 3M. Matheson15:15N. Dobson14:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayNoah Dobson MTL Turns 26 that day0 SOG
HometownJonathan Huberdeau CGY Plays near home (born in Saint-Jerome)4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, MTL 3.1	CGY 1, MTL 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CGY 27.4, MTL 26.9	CGY 29, MTL 36
Win chance	MTL 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	4	0.84	2	34%	1
CGY N. Kadri	3.0	2	0.84	0	30%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	4	0.56	0	24%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	1	0.98	1	29%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	1	0.51	0	18%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	0	0.61	0	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	3	0.71	1	25%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.1	1	0.53	0	13%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	1	0.55	0	22%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.0	2	0.47	0	10%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	2.0	3	0.52	1	22%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	1	0.53	1	25%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	3	0.41	0	17%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	4	0.40	1	18%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.47	0	17%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	0	0.85	0	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.6	4	0.70	0	22%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.6	3	0.42	3	17%	1
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	1	0.42	0	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	4	0.43	0	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	1	0.86	1	9%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.4	3	0.44	1	15%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.4	3	0.41	0	17%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	0	0.31	0	15%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.0	2	0.29	0	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.17	0	8%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.29	1	5%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	0.8	2	0.10	1	4%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.8	3	0.13	0	8%	0
MTL S. Blais	0.7	3	0.22	0	7%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	2	0.08	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	1	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.