CGY beat NSH 4-3, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.10. CGY outshot NSH 28 to 20. J. Marchessault led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Backlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. D. Vladar stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| NSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 7:45NSHJ. Marchessault0.08 xG
- 1st 10:22CGYN. Kadri0.01 xG
- 1st 10:52NSHT. Novak0.22 xG
- 2nd 2:27CGYK. Rooney0.10 xG
- 2nd 7:41NSHJ. Marchessault0.13 xG
- 2nd 13:49CGYB. Pachal0.05 xG
- 2nd 18:41CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.46 xGNSH 2.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:51 |
| K. Rooney | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:17 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:17 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:07 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:11 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:07 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 6:34 | 0:15 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:48 | 2:24 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:20 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:39 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 1:47 |
| B. Pachal | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 23:23 | 2:18 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:55 | 1:19 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:17 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:16 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 2:12 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 2:17 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:20 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:49 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:49 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:59 | 0:45 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:38 | 1:47 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 10:51 | 1:43 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:52 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 27:54 | 2:21 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:22 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:24 | 0:18 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:44 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:32 | 0:41 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:38 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.9, NSH 3.1 | CGY 4, NSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 30.4, NSH 31.0 | CGY 28, NSH 20 |
| Win chance | NSH 54% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.7 | 3 | 1.03 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 5 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.9 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.7 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 5 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.8 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.6 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 2 | 0.12 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 12 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.