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Game Recap
CGY2
NSH4
NSH beat CGY 4-2, with the chances close: 2.54 expected goals to 2.78. CGY outshot NSH 35 to 24. M. Bunting led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Andersson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Saros stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| NSH | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 10:29NSHM. Bunting0.05 xG
- 1st 11:18NSHM. Wood0.09 xG
- 1st 14:17NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.24 xG
- 3rd 4:39CGYJ. Huberdeau0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:57CGYJ. Farabee0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:36NSHF. ForsbergEN0.40 xG
Team Stats
CGYNSH
35Shots on goal24
2.78Expected goals2.54
69Shot attempts51
295v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play1/4
18Hits13
16Blocked shots16
20Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways11
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.78 xGNSH 2.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 2:32 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 2:00 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:06 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 2:18 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:54 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:11 | 2:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:28 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:42 |
| S. Honzek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:47 | 2:11 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:22 | 1:49 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 21:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 12 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:43 | 4:22 |
| M. Wood | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:00 | 3:05 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 2:48 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 4:19 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:37 | 4:30 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:51 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:36 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:06 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:55 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:04 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:02 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | 0:04 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 4:37 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:58 | 1:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:59 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:51 | 2:22 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:17 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1J. Huberdeau13:52M. Frost13:58N. Kadri14:28
Line 2B. Coleman12:25S. Honzek10:36M. Backlund10:56
Line 3J. Farabee11:59Y. Sharangovich11:28M. Coronato11:14
Line 4J. Kirkland9:08R. Lomberg8:55A. Klapka9:13
Pair 1K. Bahl16:39R. Andersson17:48
NSH
Line 1E. Haula13:38J. Marchessault14:35S. Stamkos13:10
Line 2L. Evangelista12:27F. Forsberg16:18R. O'Reilly12:13
Line 3M. McCarron13:35O. Wiesblatt11:27M. Bunting11:21
Line 4F. Svechkov10:48M. Wood6:55
Pair 2S. Stastney14:54J. Barron14:17
Pair 3N. Hague15:41N. Blankenburg12:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.9, NSH 3.1 | CGY 2, NSH 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.1, NSH 29.8 | CGY 35, NSH 24 |
| Win chance | NSH 52% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.6 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY S. Honzek | 1.3 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.