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Game Recap
CGY1
NSH5
NSH beat CGY 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.89 expected goals to 2.03. M. Bunting led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Forsberg had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Saros stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NSH | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 6:24NSHR. Schaefer0.24 xG
- 2nd 5:04NSHS. Stamkos0.16 xG
- 2nd 14:25NSHJ. Marchessault0.11 xG
- 2nd 15:32NSHO. Wiesblatt0.23 xG
- 3rd 2:59NSHM. Bunting0.33 xG
- 3rd 13:39CGYM. FrostPP0.24 xG
Team Stats
CGYNSH
28Shots on goal28
2.03Expected goals2.89
48Shot attempts52
225v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play0/3
24Hits18
10Blocked shots9
16Penalty minutes20
23Giveaways14
5Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.03 xGNSH 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:06 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 3:04 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 3:02 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:04 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 16:58 | 1:11 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:51 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15:47 | 0:52 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 3:04 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:03 | 2:03 |
| D. Hunt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 23:41 | 3:24 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:41 | 1:45 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:19 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:54 | 2:06 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:51 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:47 | 1:45 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:59 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:03 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:55 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:49 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:20 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:49 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:40 | 2:03 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 21:44 | 0:53 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 24:12 | 1:53 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:07 | 0:01 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:53 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:12 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 2:16 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri13:00Y. Sharangovich13:13J. Farabee13:48
Line 2J. Huberdeau12:18M. Frost13:42M. Coronato11:32
Line 3M. Backlund11:55B. Coleman12:24C. Zary10:07
Line 4D. Hunt11:11J. Beecher8:16A. Klapka9:32
Pair 1M. Weegar18:13Y. Kuznetsov16:50
Pair 2K. Bahl15:46R. Andersson15:48
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos13:06R. O'Reilly14:35L. Evangelista13:09
Line 2J. Marchessault12:23F. Forsberg12:26E. Haula11:09
Line 3F. Svechkov11:59M. Wood10:37R. Schaefer9:43
Line 4T. Jost10:47O. Wiesblatt10:08M. Bunting10:48
Pair 3N. Blankenburg12:19S. Stastney11:20
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.9, NSH 2.9 | CGY 1, NSH 5 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.8, NSH 29.1 | CGY 28, NSH 28 |
| Win chance | NSH 51% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 7 | 0.88 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.6 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.4 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 5 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.5 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY D. Hunt | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.