Game Recap: CGY 4, NYI 3 (OT), March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY4

Final/OTSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

CGY beat NYI 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 4.08. J. Huberdeau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. MacLean had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. D. Vladar stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CGY	1	1	1	1	4
NYI	2	0	1	0	3

1st 0:36CGYM. Coronato0.04 xG
1st 10:46NYIB. Horvat0.48 xG
1st 17:41NYIM. Gatcomb0.16 xG
2nd 6:03CGYM. Coronato0.14 xG
3rd 17:09NYIK. MacLean0.18 xG
3rd 17:38CGYJ. Huberdeau0.05 xG
OT 3:53CGYN. Kadri0.15 xG

Team Stats

CGYNYI

35Shots on goal29

2.39Expected goals4.08

62Shot attempts64

275v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/1

19Hits19

13Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways17

7Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.39 xGNYI 4.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY34 on goal, 4 scored

NYI29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	2	3	4	2	1	+3	0	23:09	2:52
M. Coronato	RW	2	0	2	3	1	1	+4	0	21:59	2:56
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	+2	0	23:23	3:16
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	0	22:45	3:12
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:20	0:48
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:18	0:44
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:00	1:08
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:10	1:04
D. Hunt	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:22	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	5:56	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	5:16	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	5:11	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	3	3	3	0	0	+1	0	26:38	3:01
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	22:33	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	19:32	0:59
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	17:42	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:33	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	15:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	29	26	3	.897	63:46	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	11:35	0:00
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	20:27	1:06
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:43	1:15
K. MacLean	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	0	11:53	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+2	0	11:21	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	18:34	1:14
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:16	0:43
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:13	0:44
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:33	0:43
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:16	0:11
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:04	0:02
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:16	0:02
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	-2	0	22:14	1:22
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	23:19	1:29
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	23:04	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	21:32	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	20:27	0:31
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	15:52	0:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	35	31	4	.886	63:53	OT loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMaxim Tsyplakov CGY First game back in New York, his team until Jan 20262 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, NYI 3.2	CGY 4, NYI 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CGY 28.8, NYI 30.3	CGY 35, NYI 29
Win chance	NYI 56%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	6	0.82	1	29%	1
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	2	0.80	1	34%	1
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	3	0.62	2	11%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	2	0.73	0	30%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	3	0.51	2	21%	2
NYI A. Lee	2.2	2	0.56	0	25%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.50	0	22%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	1	0.60	1	11%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	4	0.77	3	24%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.9	1	0.52	0	18%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	2	0.48	0	20%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	3	0.42	3	9%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	1	0.35	0	4%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	1	0.45	0	21%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	0	0.55	0	18%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	3	0.62	1	26%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	0	0.48	0	23%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.4	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	0	0.32	0	6%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	1	0.35	0	10%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	1	0.30	0	14%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	3	0.31	0	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	2	0.34	2	11%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.0	4	0.19	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.23	1	4%	0
NYI H. Fasching	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
CGY D. Hunt	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	0	0.12	0	9%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.12	0	7%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	4	0.18	1	9%	1
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	2	0.12	0	3%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.7	1	0.22	1	12%	1
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	3	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.