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Game Recap
CGY2
FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night
NYI3

NYI beat CGY 3-2, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 3.01. S. Holmstrom led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Rittich stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY0022
NYI3003
  1. 1st 10:06NYIC. Cizikas0.36 xG
  2. 1st 16:35NYIS. Holmstrom0.22 xG
  3. 1st 19:35NYIS. HolmstromSH0.30 xG
  4. 3rd 2:17CGYM. Backlund0.10 xG
  5. 3rd 8:28CGYB. Coleman0.42 xG

Team Stats

CGYNYI
32Shots on goal27
3.01Expected goals2.58
64Shot attempts49
275v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/1
9Hits22
10Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways16
6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.01 xGNYI 2.58 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdNYI goal, 10:06NYI goal, 16:35NYI goal, 19:35CGY goal, 2:17CGY goal, 8:28

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY31 on goal, 2 scored
NYI27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. ColemanLW101410+2019:232:14
M. BacklundC1014000017:071:50
R. StromeC0001010018:031:42
M. FrostC000202-1017:542:04
M. CoronatoRW000110-1017:472:07
V. OlofssonLW000302-1017:301:47
J. FarabeeLW000100+1016:450:08
Y. SharangovichC000410-1016:301:22
M. GridinRW000200-1016:232:04
C. ZaryC000010-1010:411:46
J. BeecherC000110-109:440:05
A. KlapkaRW000001-128:050:03
K. BahlD011000-1023:130:34
O. MäättäD011200-1021:000:08
Y. KuznetsovD011220+1017:400:00
Z. WhitecloudD000313+1019:510:00
Z. ParekhD0002110019:142:06
J. HanleyD0000000013:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Cooley1073.70018:43Loss
D. Wolf171701.00038:29

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. HolmstromRW202200+2015:300:00
J. PageauC011331+1017:040:16
B. SchennC0110300014:321:46
A. DuclairLW011112+1012:580:00
C. CizikasC1012410011:560:00
K. MacLeanC0110200010:410:00
B. HorvatC0003000020:011:42
M. BarzalC0004020019:071:41
A. LeeLW000241-1016:240:18
E. HeinemanLW0003200015:100:00
C. RitchieC000101-1213:551:42
O. PalatLW0000100010:060:14
M. SchaeferD000204+1022:061:44
T. DeAngeloD000101+2021:420:18
A. PelechD000100+1021:320:19
R. PulockD000103+1021:060:00
S. MayfieldD000012-1017:180:00
C. SoucyD000110-2215:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich32302.93859:45Win
I. Sorokin000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1R. Strome14:30V. Olofsson14:54Y. Sharangovich13:59
Line 2M. Frost14:56M. Coronato14:17M. Gridin13:53
Line 3B. Coleman14:25J. Farabee13:42M. Backlund12:51
Line 4J. Beecher8:20A. Klapka8:02C. Zary8:55
Pair 1O. Määttä18:58K. Bahl20:03
Pair 2Y. Kuznetsov16:08Z. Whitecloud18:13
Pair 3J. Hanley13:18Z. Parekh15:21

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal15:50B. Horvat14:47E. Heineman14:18
Line 2A. Lee14:29J. Pageau13:48C. Ritchie12:13
Line 3B. Schenn12:27A. Duclair12:41S. Holmstrom12:24
Line 4C. Cizikas9:42K. MacLean10:14O. Palat9:33
Pair 1T. DeAngelo20:19A. Pelech17:53
Pair 2R. Pulock16:50M. Schaefer18:50
Pair 3S. Mayfield14:54C. Soucy13:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 2.8, NYI 3.0CGY 2, NYI 3
Total goals5.85
Shots on goalCGY 27.5, NYI 30.0CGY 32, NYI 27
Win chanceNYI 55%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.630.88036%0
NYI M. Barzal2.740.98025%0
NYI M. Schaefer2.620.74020%0
NYI A. Lee2.520.52023%0
CGY B. Coleman2.340.48122%1
CGY M. Backlund2.340.50119%1
CGY M. Coronato2.210.45020%0
NYI E. Heineman2.130.39021%0
NYI T. DeAngelo2.010.4708%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.840.44022%0
CGY M. Gridin1.820.40016%0
CGY J. Farabee1.810.43019%0
NYI B. Schenn1.700.60121%0
CGY V. Olofsson1.730.40020%0
CGY C. Zary1.600.40017%0
NYI A. Pelech1.510.2704%0
CGY M. Frost1.520.40015%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.510.48018%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.520.57222%2
NYI J. Pageau1.330.50117%0
CGY R. Strome1.310.40013%0
NYI O. Palat1.300.34015%0
NYI R. Pulock1.210.3005%0
NYI A. Duclair1.110.37117%0
CGY A. Klapka1.100.26012%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.120.2116%0
CGY K. Bahl1.100.2815%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.020.2219%1
CGY Z. Parekh0.920.2106%0
CGY O. Määttä0.920.2514%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.930.2205%0
CGY J. Beecher0.910.1809%0
NYI K. MacLean0.700.1517%0
NYI C. Soucy0.710.1405%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.700.1203%0
CGY J. Hanley0.700.1402%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.