Game Recap: CGY 0, NYR 4, March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY0

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

NYR4

NYR beat CGY 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 2.40. NYR outshot CGY 29 to 21. A. Lafrenière scored three for NYR. M. Coronato had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Quick stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
NYR	1	2	1	4

1st 17:27NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.14 xG
2nd 10:28NYRC. Sheary0.12 xG
2nd 16:31NYRA. Lafrenière0.18 xG
3rd 17:42NYRA. Lafrenière0.15 xG

Team Stats

CGYNYR

21Shots on goal29

2.40Expected goals3.32

55Shot attempts56

185v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play1/3

25Hits23

9Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways13

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.40 xGNYR 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY21 on goal, 0 scored

NYR29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	2	0	0	-2	0	17:34	1:44
M. Coronato	RW	6	1	0	0	0	17:26	2:16
M. Frost	C	1	1	0	0	0	16:33	2:14
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	2	0	0	16:31	1:52
B. Coleman	LW	1	1	0	0	0	16:16	2:17
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	-2	0	16:09	1:46
M. Backlund	C	1	0	0	0	2	16:04	1:43
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	-1	0	15:16	0:00
M. Gridin	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	13:53	2:16
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	13:50	1:44
A. Klapka	RW	2	9	0	-1	0	11:26	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	3	0	-1	0	9:53	0:00
O. Määttä	D	2	0	1	-1	2	21:46	0:00
K. Bahl	D	2	2	0	0	0	21:44	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	1	1	1	-2	0	18:06	2:08
J. Hanley	D	1	0	1	-2	0	17:49	0:00
B. Pachal	D	1	3	1	0	0	17:28	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	2	-1	0	17:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	3	0	3	5	0	0	+2	0	18:38	3:13
G. Perreault	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	2	19:58	3:13
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:45	3:13
C. Sheary	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:27	1:03
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	14:53	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:26	3:13
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	16:00	1:03
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	15:51	0:32
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:41	0:29
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	10:22	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:39	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	7:31	0:02
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	23:24	3:13
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:26	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:21	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	22:39	1:03
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	21:00	1:03
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	+2	0	19:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	21	21	0	1.000	59:44	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1R. Strome15:43C. Zary14:11M. Gridin11:37

Line 2Y. Sharangovich13:23M. Coronato14:54M. Backlund13:01

Line 3B. Coleman11:34J. Farabee12:53M. Frost14:19

Line 4V. Olofsson12:06A. Klapka11:26M. Pospisil9:31

Pair 1O. Määttä20:00K. Bahl18:27

Pair 2J. Hanley16:44B. Pachal16:41

Pair 3Z. Parekh15:51Y. Kuznetsov14:59

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière15:25G. Perreault16:45M. Zibanejad14:40

Line 2V. Trocheck16:08W. Cuylle13:49J. Brodzinski12:56

Line 3T. Kartye12:47N. Laba13:13C. Sheary13:22

Line 4A. Edstrom9:57J. Chmelar7:39J. Parssinen7:29

Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:31A. Fox19:55

Pair 2M. Robertson19:15B. Schneider18:45

Pair 3W. Borgen12:35U. Vaakanainen14:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, NYR 3.1	CGY 0, NYR 4
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	CGY 28.4, NYR 27.3	CGY 21, NYR 29
Win chance	NYR 55%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.8	2	0.97	2	31%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	1	0.55	0	19%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	1	0.51	0	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	6	0.50	0	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	5	0.72	3	25%	3
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	1	0.84	0	26%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	2	0.53	0	22%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	1	0.84	1	13%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	0	0.49	0	20%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.9	1	0.43	0	17%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.9	2	0.49	2	20%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	0	0.46	0	21%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	0	0.45	0	18%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.7	0	0.39	0	19%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	1	0.44	0	15%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	2	0.36	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	0	0.25	0	6%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	2	0.32	1	13%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	3	0.30	0	13%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.2	2	0.39	0	12%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.2	0	0.25	0	7%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	2	0.32	1	14%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	3	0.23	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	2	0.26	0	12%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	2	0.26	0	5%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.20	1	5%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	1	0.19	0	11%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	1	0.15	0	3%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.8	0	0.18	0	10%	0
CGY O. Määttä	0.8	2	0.20	0	3%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.18	1	2%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	1	0.25	0	10%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.